🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

FA Cup

Newcastle United - Manchester City

03/07/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 3
预期进球
Newcastle United
1.5
Total xG
3.4
Manchester City
1.9
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
xG 分解
NUMC

Newcastle United

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.24
状态上升 (2.8 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.24
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.4倍)
+0.21
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第2位, 相差10位)
-0.17
防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.02
Anthony Gordon替补席 (4球, 2助攻)
Joelinton替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Jacob Ramsey未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
Dan Burn替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅78%可用)

Manchester City

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.2倍)
+0.75
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.29
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第12位, 相差10位)
+0.09
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
-0.08
Erling Haaland未进大名单 (22球, 7助攻)
Phil Foden替补席 (7球, 3助攻)
Antoine Semenyo替补席 (5球, 1助攻)
Bernardo Silva  替补席 (1球, 4助攻)
Rúben Dias 替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Rayan Aït-Nouri替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
64%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体2.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

25%

客胜

45%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

双重机会

主胜或平局

55%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

75%

双方进球

67%

33%

关键因素
  • Critical Squad Impact: Manchester City is missing key players, with only 47% of their usual starting XI's goal-scoring threat available
  • Strong Away Form and H2H Dominance: Manchester City has 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, plus 4 H2H wins in 5 encounters, supporting an away win probability of 45%
  • High-Scoring Venue and Offensive Trends: St. James' Park sees an average of 4.0 goals per game, and Newcastle United's recent goal production (2.8 goals recently) has increased compared to their season average (2.0 goals)
风险因素
  • Both teams had a short recovery period of only 3 days since their last match
  • Newcastle United is missing several players like B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura (9 goals, 4 assists), which could affect team strength
概述

Newcastle United hosts Manchester City at St. James' Park. This FA Cup match will take place on March 7, 2026, 9:00 PM. Manchester City is considered the favorite despite absences.

近期状态

Newcastle United shows a mixed form of WLWLW in their last five games, with 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last match was a win. Manchester City, on the other hand, is in strong form with WWWWD, consisting of 4 wins and 1 draw. Their last match was a draw.

统计数据

Newcastle United scores an average of 1.45 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals per game. In home matches, the average is 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded. Manchester City shows a stronger record with an average of 2.03 goals scored and only 0.93 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Manchester City scores an average of 2.09 goals and concedes 1.45 goals. At St. James' Park, the last 5 matches saw an average of 4.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 4 out of 5 matches.

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City dominates with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Newcastle United. The goal difference is 4:12 in favor of Manchester City. The last encounter on February 21, 2026, ended in a 1:2 away victory for Manchester City.

关键球员

For Newcastle United, Nick Woltemade (7 goals, 2 assists, last 5 games: 1 goal), Harvey Barnes (5 goals, 0 assists), and Malick Thiaw (4 goals, 0 assists, last 5 games: 1 goal) are important players. For Manchester City, Matheus Nunes (1 goal, 4 assists), Jérémy Doku (1 goal, 4 assists, last 5 games: 2 assists), and Nico O'Reilly (4 goals, 3 assists) stand out.

门将

Newcastle United's goalkeeper, Aaron Ramsdale, has not kept a clean sheet in 8 season appearances. The team has achieved 3 clean sheets in home games. For Manchester City, James Trafford is in goal, who has also not recorded a clean sheet in 3 season appearances. Manchester City has kept 5 clean sheets in away games.

影响因素

St. James' Park is a venue with high offensive potential, with an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 encounters. Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 out of 5 matches. Newcastle United scores an average of 1.47 goals at home and concedes 1.26 goals. Manchester City scores 2.09 goals away and concedes 1.45 goals.

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。