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Champions League

Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Arsenal

03/11/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.3
Total xG
2.9
Arsenal
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
B0LARS

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.49
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.39
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.26
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第1位, 相差15位)
-0.23
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.18
Patrik Schick替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅83%可用)

Arsenal

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.60
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.30
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.47倍)
-0.16
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第16位, 相差15位)
+0.11
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
-0.05
Leandro Trossard替补席 (1球, 3助攻)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.66
+0.66
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

28%

客胜

42%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

58%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

72%

双方进球

59%

41%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: Arsenal has a higher win probability of 42% compared to 30% for Leverkusen
  • Form: Arsenal is in excellent form with four wins and one draw in the last five games
  • Table Position: Arsenal is the unbeaten league leader, Leverkusen is in 16th place
风险因素
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows a stagnating goal production (1.3 compared to a season average of 1.9)
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen has an average of only 3.2 shots on target per game
概述

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (16th place, 12 points) hosts Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) at the BayArena for a Champions League match. The game takes place on March 11, 2026, 6:45 PM. Arsenal leads the table unbeaten, while Leverkusen fights for a better position

近期状态

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's form in their last five games across all competitions is LDDWD. This includes one win, three draws, and one loss. The last game ended in a draw, while the second to last game was a win. Arsenal is in excellent form with DWWWW from their last five matches. They achieved four wins and one draw, with the last game being a win. The visitors' form shows a streak of four consecutive wins

统计数据

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.92 goals per game and concedes 1.28 goals. At home, they impress with an average of 1.92 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded. Arsenal shows strong season performance with an average of 1.97 goals per game and only 0.73 goals conceded. Away, they score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 1.0 goal. Both teams scored in 14 of Leverkusen's 25 games and 15 of Arsenal's 30 games. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 14 of Leverkusen's games and 16 of Arsenal's games. At the venue, an average of 2.0 goals were scored in the last five games, with both teams scoring in 1 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 games

历史交锋

In the two previous head-to-head encounters, Arsenal secured one win and one draw. Arsenal won the last meeting on February 26, 2002, with a score of 4:1. Overall, Arsenal leads with 5 goals scored compared to Bayer 04 Leverkusen's 2 goals in these matches

关键球员

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo with 4 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.63, Aleix García with 2 goals and 0 assists at 7.29, and Christian Kofane with 1 goal and 1 assist at 6.62 are significant. For Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli with 6 goals and 1 assist at 7.45, Viktor Gyökeres with 4 goals and 2 assists at 7.12, and Bukayo Saka with 2 goals and 2 assists at 7.28 are key players. Patrik Schick (4G/1A) is not in Bayer 04 Leverkusen's starting lineup. Leandro Trossard (1G/3A) is not in Arsenal's starting lineup

门将

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goalkeeper, Janis Blaswich, has kept 7 clean sheets this season. Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya has kept 14 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows a strong offense at home with an average of 1.92 goals and a solid defense with 0.85 goals conceded per home game. The BayArena stadium recorded an average of 2.0 goals in the last five games. In 1 of 5 games, both teams scored and in 2 of 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored

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