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Champions League

Tottenham Hotspur - Atlético Madrid

03/18/2026, 08:00 PM

3 : 2
预期进球
Tottenham Hotspur
1.9
Total xG
3.6
Atlético Madrid
1.7
最可能的比分

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

4%
xG 分解
THAM

Tottenham Hotspur

防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
-0.25
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.11
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第14位, 相差10位)
+0.09
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.07
Dominic Solanke未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
João Palhinha未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均2.1球 vs 总体1.6球)

Atlético Madrid

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.50
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第4位, 相差10位)
-0.19
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2球)
-0.02
Alexander Sørloth替补席 (5球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.67
+0.67
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

42%

平局

24%

客胜

34%

进球数

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

双重机会

主胜或平局

66%

客胜或平局

58%

非平局

76%

双方进球

70%

30%

关键因素
  • Form contrast: Atlético Madrid is in top form with four wins from their last five games, while Tottenham is struggling with four losses and one draw
  • Home team's defensive weakness: Tottenham Hotspur recently conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.61 goals conceded
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates 1.88 expected home goals for Tottenham and 1.69 expected away goals for Atlético, with a 69% probability for over 2.5 goals
风险因素
  • Fatigue for Tottenham Hotspur: The home team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Offensive issues for Tottenham Hotspur: Goal production is recently lower at 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.6 goals
  • Absence of key players for Tottenham: Dominic Solanke (3 Goals, 0 Assists) and João Palhinha (1 Goal, 1 Assist) are not nominated
概述

Tottenham Hotspur (4th place, 17 points) host Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This Champions League match takes place on March 18, 2026, 9:00 PM. Tottenham aims to recover from poor form, while Atlético builds on its current winning streak

近期状态

Tottenham Hotspur shows a negative trend with a form of LLLLD from the last five games (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Their last match ended in a 1-1 away draw against Liverpool. Prior to that, they suffered a clear 2-5 away loss against Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid, however, is in top form with WLWWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches, including three consecutive wins. Their last game was a 1-0 home win against Getafe, followed by a convincing 5-2 home win against Tottenham Hotspur

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Tottenham Hotspur averages 1.29 home goals per game and concedes an average of 1.79 goals at home. Only 2 home games ended with a clean sheet

Atlético Madrid averages 1.62 away goals and concedes 1.62 goals per away game. They kept 5 clean sheets in away matches

Tottenham's goal production recently is lower at 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.6 goals. Atlético's goal production is consistent at about 2.0 goals per game

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches

历史交锋

There has been only one head-to-head match between these two teams. Atlético Madrid won this single encounter 5-2 on March 10, 2026. Atlético Madrid scored 5 goals, while Tottenham Hotspur recorded 2 goals. The last result indicates dominance by the away team (Atlético in this current match context)

关键球员

For Tottenham Hotspur, Randal Kolo Muani (3 goals, 2 assists), Pedro Porro (1 goal, 2 assists, average rating 7.31) and Xavi Simons (1 goal, 1 assist, average rating 7.1) are offensive mainstays

For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez stands out with 7 goals and 3 assists. Antoine Griezmann contributed 2 goals and 4 assists. Marcos Llorente showed a strong performance with 4 goals and 1 assist as a defender

门将

Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham Hotspur made 9 season appearances and kept 7 clean sheets

For Atlético Madrid, Juan Musso played in one match. Overall, Atlético achieved 12 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will take place at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on grass. The stadium profile shows an average of 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of cases and over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of cases

Tottenham scores an average of 1.29 goals at home and concedes 1.79 goals, indicating a vulnerable home defense. Atlético Madrid shows a balanced record away from home with 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded

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