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Champions League

Atalanta - FC Bayern München

03/10/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 6
预期进球
Atalanta
1.7
Total xG
3.7
FC Bayern München
2.1
最可能的比分

1:2

9%

2:2

7%

2:1

7%

1:3

6%

2:3

5%
xG 分解
ATAFBM

Atalanta

排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第2位, 相差13位)
-0.25
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.17
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.17
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.41倍)
+0.15
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.08
Lazar Samardžić替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
10%进球产出缺失 (仅94%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均2.7球 vs 总体1.6球)

FC Bayern München

进攻实力 (联赛平均的2.27倍)
+1.44
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.81
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.33
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第15位, 相差13位)
+0.13
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3.6球)
+0.04
Harry Kane替补席 (8球, 0助攻)
39%进球产出缺失 (仅96%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.6球 vs 总体3.4球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.1球)
+0.63
+0.63
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

23%

客胜

46%

进球数

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

双重机会

主胜或平局

54%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

77%

双方进球

72%

28%

关键因素
  • Offensive strength: Bayern München scores an average of 3.64 goals away and has 9.6 shots on target
  • Current form: FC Bayern München is in top form with 5 consecutive wins
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees an away win with 46% probability and 2 expected away goals
风险因素
  • Atalanta has only 3 days of rest since their last match
概述

Atalanta (15th place, 13 points) host FC Bayern München (2nd place, 21 points) at Gewiss Stadium. Champions League match on March 10, 2026, 9:00 PM. Bayern aims to solidify their top position, while Atalanta enters as an underdog.

近期状态

Atalanta's form in their last five matches across all competitions is WWLDD, which corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last two games ended in a draw. FC Bayern München is in top form with WWWWW in their last five matches across all competitions, reflecting 5 wins without any losses or draws. Bayern is on a 5-game winning streak.

统计数据

Atalanta scores an average of 1.41 goals per home game and concedes 0.76 goals. Over the entire season, their average goals are 1.39 and goals conceded average is 0.93. Both teams scored in 15 seasonal matches, while 11 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. FC Bayern München scores an average of 3.64 goals per away game and concedes 1.0 goals. Their season average stands at 3.68 goals per game and 0.96 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 16 seasonal matches, and 25 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. The Gewiss Stadium sees an average of 3.6 goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and all 5 matches had over 2.5 goals. Atalanta is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.6). FC Bayern München consistently scores (~3.5 goals per game).

关键球员

For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca (3 goals), Mario Pašalić (2 goals), and Nikola Krstović (1 goal) are the most prolific scorers this season. Gianluca Scamacca has scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists in 20 games at Gewiss Stadium. Mario Pašalić has 4 goals and 4 assists in 22 home games. For FC Bayern München, Luis Díaz (3 goals, 1 assist), Michael Olise (1 goal, 4 assists), and Serge Gnabry (1 goal, 3 assists) stand out. Luis Díaz shows a rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 2 games. Michael Olise contributed 2 assists in his last 2 games, but his form is declining. Serge Gnabry has not scored or assisted in his last 2 games, and his form is also declining.

门将

Atalanta's goalkeeper, Marco Carnesecchi, has an average rating of 7.09 in 9 appearances this season. The team recorded 10 clean sheets. For FC Bayern München, Jonas Urbig achieved an average rating of 7.76 in 1 appearance. The team has managed a total of 9 clean sheets.

影响因素

The Gewiss Stadium is known for a high goal rate with an average of 3.6 goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and all 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. Atalanta has scored 24 goals and conceded 13 goals at home this season. FC Bayern München has scored 40 goals and conceded 11 goals away from home. The home team is possession-dominant with 59% possession and 6.0 shots on target. The away team is also possession-dominant with 62% possession and 9.6 shots on target.

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