Europa League
VfB Stuttgart - Porto
03/12/2026, 05:45 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.9
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
6%0:2
6%xG 分解
VfB Stuttgart
Porto
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
35%
平局
28%
客胜
37%
进球数
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
双重机会
主胜或平局
63%
客胜或平局
65%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
60%
否
40%
关键因素
- Pipeline Analysis: The model predicts a very tight match, with Porto having a slightly higher win probability (37%) than Stuttgart (36%), and a high draw probability (28%)
- Defensive Solidity vs. Offensive Power: Porto boasts an exceptionally strong defense (0.4 goals conceded per game, 17 clean sheets), while Stuttgart has a potent home offense (2.1 goals per home game)
- Recent Form Contrast: Stuttgart's recent form shows an increased scoring rate (2.6 goals vs. 2.0 season average), while Porto's goal production has slowed (1.6 goals vs. 1.9 season average)
风险因素
- Stuttgart's Home Defensive Vulnerability: Despite a strong home offense, Stuttgart concedes an average of 1.20 goals per home game, which could be exploited by Porto's attack
- High Probability for Both Teams to Score: The model predicts a 60% chance for both teams to score, suggesting a potentially open game where defensive lapses could be costly for either side
- Porto's Declining Goal Production: According to advanced stats, Porto's recent goal production has slowed to 1.6 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.9 goals, which could pose a risk to their scoring ability
概述
VfB Stuttgart hosts FC Porto at the MHPArena for a Europa League match on March 12, 2026, 6:45 PM
Stuttgart is in 11th place with 15 points
Porto is in 5th place with 17 points
The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight game, with Porto having a slightly higher win probability of 37% compared to Stuttgart's 36%
A draw is calculated with a 28% probability
Predicted goals are 1.44 for Stuttgart and 1.47 for Porto
近期状态
VfB Stuttgart's last five games show a form of WDLWD
This equates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last match ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
FC Porto's last five games show a form of DWWWD
This equates to 3 wins and 2 draws
The last match ended in a draw
统计数据
VfB Stuttgart averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes 1.36 goals per game
At home, Stuttgart averages 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded
Stuttgart kept 9 clean sheets this season
FC Porto averages 1.96 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.40 goals per game
Away from home, Porto averages 1.92 goals scored and 0.46 goals conceded
Porto achieved an impressive 17 clean sheets this season
The MHPArena venue has seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games
关键球员
For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav is an important attacker with 2 season goals and 6 assists, holding an average rating of 7.37
Midfielder Bilal El Khannouss has scored 5 season goals with a rating of 7.26
Jamie Leweling, also an attacker, contributed 3 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.00
Not nominated: Maximilian Mittelstädt (1 Goal/1 Assist)
For FC Porto, Rodrigo Mora is a relevant midfielder with 2 season goals and 1 assist, holding an average rating of 7.15
Defender Jan Bednarek has a rating of 6.92 and scored 1 goal in his last 5 games
Borja Sainz in attack has 1 season goal and 1 assist with a rating of 6.88
Not nominated: Pepê (0 Goals/3 Assists), Gabri Veiga (2 Goals/0 Assists), Deniz Gül (1 Goal/1 Assist)
门将
VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper, Alexander Nübel, has a season average rating of 6.85
Stuttgart has achieved 9 clean sheets this season
FC Porto's goalkeeper, Diogo Costa, has a rating of 6.63
Porto has recorded an impressive 17 clean sheets this season
影响因素
VfB Stuttgart shows a strong offense at home, averaging 2.10 home goals
Their defense concedes an average of 1.20 home goals
The MHPArena has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%