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Europa League

Roma - Bologna

03/19/2026, 08:00 PM

3 : 4
预期进球
Roma
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Bologna
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
ROMBOL

Roma

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.6倍)
-0.81
防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.62
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.56
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.12
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.12
Lorenzo Pellegrini替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.4球)

Bologna

最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.14
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.14
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.32倍)
+0.13
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.08
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.01
Riccardo Orsolini替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Jens Odgaard替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

33%

平局

30%

客胜

37%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

63%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

70%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Bologna a 37% chance of an away win
  • Form Advantage: Bologna shows better form with 3 wins and 1 draw compared to Roma (1 win, 2 draws)
  • Head-to-Head: Bologna has been more dominant in recent direct encounters
风险因素
  • Roma's Increased Goals Conceded: Roma's recent average goals conceded (1.6) are higher than their season average (0.85)
  • Bologna's Stagnating Goal Production: Bologna's recent goal production (1.0) is lower than their season average (1.5)
  • Low Shots on Target: Both teams show a low average of shots on target (Roma 2.8, Bologna 3.0)
概述

Roma (8th place, 16 points) host Bologna (10th place, 15 points) at the Stadio Olimpico. Europa League match on March 19, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are in the upper half of the table, vying for a better position.

近期状态

Roma shows mixed form in their last five matches with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (Form: WDLDL). Their last outing resulted in a loss (L). Bologna, on the other hand, exhibits better form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games (Form: WWLDW). Their last game ended in a win (W). Roma currently scores more often (1.8) than their season average (1.4). Bologna's goal production is stagnating (1.0), with a season average of 1.5.

统计数据

Roma scores an average of 1.34 goals per season and concedes 0.79 goals. At home, they average 1.38 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per game. Bologna scores 1.31 goals and concedes 1.17 goals per game. Away from home, Bologna averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 1.0 goals. Roma kept 12 clean sheets this season, while Bologna recorded 9. The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 3.4 goals in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals.

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma secured 1 win, Bologna 2 wins, and there were 2 draws. The goal difference in these fixtures is 7:9 in favor of Bologna. The last encounter on March 12, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw. Bologna has been more dominant in recent direct duels.

关键球员

For Roma, Niccolò Pisilli with 2 goals, Stephan El Shaarawy with 1 goal, and Evan Ndicka with 1 goal are important players. For Bologna, Federico Bernardeschi with 4 goals, Jonathan Rowe with 2 goals and 1 assist, and Santiago Castro with 1 goal and 1 assist are key figures. Niccolò Pisilli has an average season rating of 7.13.

门将

Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar has an average season rating of 6.97. Bologna starts with Federico Ravaglia in goal, whose season rating is 6.65. Roma kept 12 clean sheets this season, while Bologna recorded 9 clean sheets.

影响因素

Roma shows strong defensive performance at home with an average of 0.56 goals conceded. Bologna concedes an average of 1.0 goals away from home. The Stadio Olimpico averages 3.4 goals per game. Additionally, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.

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