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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV

03/21/2026, 05:30 PM

3 : 2
预期进球
Borussia Dortmund
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Hamburger SV
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
BDHS

Borussia Dortmund

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.44
状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.15
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.09
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第11位, 相差9位)
+0.08
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.34倍)
+0.03
Serhou Guirassy替补席 (12球, 2助攻)
Julian Brandt替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
Ramy Bensebaini替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
28%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)

Hamburger SV

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍)
-0.69
防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.27
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.10
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.10
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第2位, 相差9位)
-0.09
10%进球产出缺失 (仅89%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.66
+0.66
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

58%

平局

25%

客胜

16%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

42%

非平局

75%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • Favorite role: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 58% for Borussia Dortmund
  • Home strength vs. Away weakness: Dortmund's strong home offense (2.14 goals) meets Hamburg's vulnerable away defense (2.5 goals conceded)
  • Historical dominance: Borussia Dortmund has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Hamburger SV
风险因素
  • HSV's away weakness: Hamburger SV concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • Dortmund's form trend: BVB's goal production is currently stagnating (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (2.1 goals)
  • Dortmund injuries: Serhou Guirassy, Julian Brandt, and Ramy Bensebaini are unavailable for BVB
概述

Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 58 points) hosts Hamburger SV (11th place, 30 points) at Signal Iduna Park

Bundesliga match on March 21, 2026, 6:30 PM

The hosts aim to solidify their position in the top group

近期状态

Borussia Dortmund's form across all competitions: DLLWW

This equates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from the last 5 games

Hamburger SV shows the following form in their last 5 games: DLLWD

This consists of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Dortmund's last result was a win, their second in a row

HSV recently achieved a draw after a win

统计数据

Borussia Dortmund scores an average of 2.12 goals per game and concedes 1.0 goal

At home, they score 2.14 goals and concede only 0.79 goals per home game

Hamburger SV averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per game

Away from home, HSV concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game and scores 1.12 goals

Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 12 season games, HSV in 6 games

For Dortmund, over 2.5 goals were scored in 15 games, for HSV in 13 games

Signal Iduna Park has seen an average of 3.6 goals per match in the last 5 games

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund dominated with 4 wins

There was 1 draw and no wins for Hamburger SV

The goal difference of 14:3 clearly favors Dortmund

The last encounter on November 8, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Historically, the home team has a dominant record in this fixture

关键球员

For Borussia Dortmund, Julian Ryerson (12 assists), Maximilian Beier (8 goals, 4 assists), and Karim Adeyemi (6 goals, 3 assists) are decisive players

On Hamburger SV's side, Fábio Vieira (5 goals, 4 assists), Ransford Königsdörffer (4 goals, 2 assists), and Luka Vuskovic (5 goals) are important players

Nico Schlotterbeck has a season average rating of 7.4

Luka Vuskovic has a season average rating of 7.22

Not nominated for Dortmund: Serhou Guirassy (12G/2A), Julian Brandt (6G/3A), Ramy Bensebaini (2G/0A)

门将

Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper Gregor Kobel played in 26 season games and kept 12 clean sheets

Daniel Heuer Fernandes, Hamburger SV's goalkeeper, played 26 season games and achieved 6 clean sheets

影响因素

Borussia Dortmund's home record is strong with an average of 2.14 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded

Signal Iduna Park proves to be a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.6 goals per game

In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored

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