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Champions League

Real Madrid - FC Bayern München

04/07/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Real Madrid
1.7
Total xG
3.6
FC Bayern München
1.8
最可能的比分

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:3

5%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
RMFBM

Real Madrid

排名劣势 (第9位 vs 第2位, 相差7位)
-0.13
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.10
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.07
Brahim Díaz替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Thibaut Courtois未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

FC Bayern München

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.48倍)
+0.68
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.25
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第9位, 相差7位)
+0.06
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3.6球)
+0.04
Lennart Karl替补席 (4球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均2球 vs 总体3.5球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.71
+0.71
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

24%

客胜

39%

进球数

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

双重机会

主胜或平局

61%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

76%

双方进球

70%

30%

关键因素
  • Slight favoritism for FC Bayern München according to mathematical analysis (39% win probability)
  • High goal expectation in the match (model predicts 1.75 goals for Real Madrid and 1.81 for FC Bayern München)
  • FC Bayern München recently shows strong offensive performance (avg 8.8 shots on target) with 68% possession
风险因素
  • Real Madrid had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • FC Bayern München had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Several absences for Real Madrid, including T. Courtois and F. Mendy
概述

Real Madrid host FC Bayern München at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu for a Champions League match on April 7, 2026, 9:00 PM

Real Madrid are in 9th place in the Champions League standings with 15 points

FC Bayern München are in 2nd place with 21 points and enter the match as slight favorites

近期状态

Real Madrid's form across all competitions is WWWWL

This indicates 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches

The last result was a loss

FC Bayern München's form is WDWWW

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw from their last five matches

The team has won three consecutive games

统计数据

Real Madrid averages 2.13 goals scored per game and concedes 0.93 goals per game this season

In home games, they average 2.12 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded

FC Bayern München is offensively very strong with 3.57 goals scored per game and concedes 0.96 goals

Away from home, FC Bayern München even averages 3.67 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 17 of 30 Real Madrid games and 18 of 28 FC Bayern München games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 19 Real Madrid games and 27 FC Bayern München games

The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu recently registered 3.4 goals/game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 games

历史交锋

In 2 previous head-to-head matches between Real Madrid and FC Bayern München, Real Madrid secured 1 win

There has been 1 draw and no wins for FC Bayern München

Real Madrid scored a total of 4 goals, while FC Bayern München scored 3 goals

The last encounter on May 8, 2024, ended in a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid

Real Madrid has been more dominant in recent direct encounters

关键球员

For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior (5 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.28, 4 goals and 1 assist in last 5 games) and Federico Valverde (3 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.38, 3 goals in last 5 games) are key performers

Kylian Mbappé is also crucial with 13 season goals and 1 assist at an avg rating of 8.18, though his form is declining

For FC Bayern München, Harry Kane stands out with 10 season goals and an avg rating of 7.88, scoring 5 goals in his last 5 games

Michael Olise shines with 3 goals and 5 assists and an avg rating of 7.81, contributing 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Serge Gnabry showed stable form with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

门将

Andriy Lunin is the goalkeeper for Real Madrid and has featured in 2 season appearances

Real Madrid kept 11 clean sheets this season

Manuel Neuer is in goal for FC Bayern München and has made 7 season appearances

FC Bayern München recorded 10 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Real Madrid benefits from home advantage at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

In home games, the team scores an average of 2.12 goals and concedes only 0.71 goals

The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is a high-scoring arena with an average of 3.4 goals per game

In 60% of the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games

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