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Champions League

Paris Saint Germain - Arsenal

05/30/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Paris Saint Germain
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Arsenal
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
PSGARS

Paris Saint Germain

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.53
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第1位, 相差10位)
-0.13
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.03

Arsenal

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.61
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.38倍)
+0.28
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第11位, 相差10位)
+0.08
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.06
Viktor Gyökeres替补席 (5球, 2助攻)
Eberechi Eze替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
21%进球产出缺失 (仅89%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.7球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.68
+0.68
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

27%

平局

28%

客胜

45%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

双重机会

主胜或平局

55%

客胜或平局

73%

非平局

72%

双方进球

57%

43%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a win probability of 45% for Arsenal
  • Arsenal are in perfect form with 5 consecutive wins
  • Paris Saint Germain shows a stable offensive performance, consistently scoring ~2.6 goals per game
风险因素
  • Arsenal's goal production recently showed a negative trend (1.6 goals per game compared to 2.1 season goals)
  • The Puskás Aréna has recorded an average of only 1.0 goals per game in 3 matches
概述

Paris Saint Germain host Arsenal at the Puskás Aréna for the Champions League Final on May 30, 2026, 6:00 PM. Paris Saint Germain are in 11th place with 14 points, while Arsenal lead the table with 24 points. The match promises to be a decisive encounter between two top teams.

近期状态

Paris Saint Germain's recent form (WWWWD) shows 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches. Their last game was a 1-1 away draw against FC Bayern München. Before that, they secured a 5-4 home win against FC Bayern München and two 2-0 victories against Liverpool (away and home). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Arsenal (WWWWW) are in perfect form with 5 consecutive wins. The Gunners won their last games 2-1 away against Crystal Palace and 1-0 home against Burnley. They also beat West Ham United 1-0 away, Atlético Madrid 1-0 home, and Fulham 3-0 home.

统计数据

Paris Saint Germain scored an average of 2.18 goals per game and conceded 0.85 goals per game. They kept 18 clean sheets. Arsenal scored an average of 1.87 goals and conceded 0.71 goals per game, with 19 clean sheets. The mathematical analysis predicts 1.20 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.60 goals for Arsenal. The Puskás Aréna has seen an average of 1.0 total goals per game in 3 matches, with neither team scoring nor more than 2.5 goals occurring in any of these games.

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, Paris Saint Germain have 2 wins, Arsenal have 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The goal difference is even at 6:6. Paris Saint Germain won the last encounter 2-1 at home on May 7, 2025. Paris Saint Germain have been dominant in recent direct duels.

关键球员

For Paris Saint Germain, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia stands out with 10 goals and 6 assists this season, holding an average rating of 7.72. Ousmane Dembélé also performed strongly with 7 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 7.24. Vitinha contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 7.57. Not nominated: Viktor Gyökeres (5G/2A), Eberechi Eze (1G/1A).

For Arsenal, Declan Rice is a key player with a season rating of 7.35 (1 goal, 2 assists). Bukayo Saka scored 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.21. Kai Havertz contributed 3 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 7.17.

门将

Paris Saint Germain's goalkeeper Matvey Safonov has a rating of 6.99 in 10 season appearances. The Paris Saint Germain team recorded 18 clean sheets. Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya has a rating of 7.19 in 13 season appearances. Arsenal's team achieved a total of 19 clean sheets.

影响因素

The Puskás Aréna has recorded an average of only 1.0 goals per game in 3 matches. The surface is grass.

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