Europa League
Porto - Nottingham Forest
04/09/2026, 07:00 PM
预期进球
1.6
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
7%2:2
5%xG 分解
Porto
Nottingham Forest
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
47%
平局
28%
客胜
25%
进球数
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
双重机会
主胜或平局
75%
客胜或平局
53%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
54%
否
46%
关键因素
- Favorites: Mathematical analysis assigns Porto a home win probability of 47%
- Porto's strong home performance: Averaging 1.93 goals scored and conceding only 0.40 goals per home game
- Nottingham Forest's recent away form: 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 away matches
风险因素
- Head-to-Head: Nottingham Forest won the only previous encounter against Porto 2-0
- Porto's xG trend: The current xG average (1.50) is lower than the season average (1.82)
- Nottingham Forest's improved scoring rate: The team is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.4 goals per game)
概述
Porto host Nottingham Forest at the Estádio Do Dragão for a Europa League match on April 9, 2026, 9:00 PM. Porto are in 5th place with 17 points in the table, while Nottingham Forest are in 13th place with 14 points. The mathematical analysis indicates Porto as favorites with a home win probability of 47%.
近期状态
Porto are in strong form with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches (Form: WWWWD). Porto's last result was a 2-2 draw against Famalicão. Nottingham Forest have achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches (Form: DLDWW). Their last game was a 3-0 away win against Tottenham Hotspur. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Porto scores an average of 2.00 goals per game this season and concedes an average of 0.46 goals. At home, they average 1.93 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per home game. They have kept 18 clean sheets. Nottingham Forest scores an average of 1.00 goal per game and concedes 1.39 goals per match. Away from home, they scored 1.00 goal and conceded 1.33 goals per away game. They kept 8 clean sheets. In the last 5 matches at Estádio Do Dragão, an average of 2.8 total goals were scored per game. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 matches (60%).
历史交锋
There has only been one head-to-head encounter between these two teams so far. Nottingham Forest won this single match 2-0 against Porto on October 23, 2025, while playing at home. Historically, the away team (Nottingham Forest) was dominant in this fixture.
关键球员
For Porto, William Gomes with 3 season goals and 0 assists, Borja Sainz with 1 season goal and 3 assists, and Gabri Veiga with 2 season goals and 0 assists are key players. For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White stands out with 2 season goals and 3 assists, Ryan Yates with 2 season goals and 2 assists, and James McAtee with 0 season goals and 1 assist.
门将
Diogo Costa is the goalkeeper for Porto. The team has kept a total of 18 clean sheets this season. Stefan Ortega is the goalkeeper for Nottingham Forest. The team has kept 8 clean sheets this season.
影响因素
Porto shows a strong home performance, averaging 1.93 goals scored and conceding only 0.40 goals per game. The Estádio Do Dragão has an average of 2.8 total goals per game over the last 5 matches. Additionally, over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the last 5 matches. Weather is not listed as an influencing factor in the dataset.