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Europa League

Celta de Vigo - SC Freiburg

04/16/2026, 04:45 PM

1 : 3
预期进球
Celta de Vigo
1.1
Total xG
2.3
SC Freiburg
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
CDVSF

Celta de Vigo

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.65倍)
-0.60
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.27
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第7位, 相差9位)
-0.10
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.01
Williot Swedberg替补席 (4球, 3助攻)
Pablo Durán替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用)

SC Freiburg

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.29
状态上升 (2.6 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.29
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.12
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.8倍)
-0.10
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第16位, 相差9位)
+0.05
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.6球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

32%

客胜

39%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

61%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

68%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Critical offensive weakening: SC Freiburg only has 40% of their usual goal production available
  • Mathematical prediction: SC Freiburg is seen as the favorite with a 39% win probability
  • Form trend: Freiburg shows a strong run with 4 wins in 5 games, while Celta de Vigo recently had two consecutive losses
风险因素
  • SC Freiburg concedes an average of 2.55 goals per away game
  • Ionuț Radu, Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, shows declining form with a recent rating of 6.22
概述

Celta de Vigo (16th place, 13 points) host SC Freiburg (7th place, 17 points) at Estadio de Balaídos

Europa League match on April 16, 2026, 6:45 PM

The mathematical analysis sees SC Freiburg as favorites with a 39% win probability

近期状态

Celta de Vigo's form across all competitions is WLWLL

The team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games

They also have two consecutive losses

SC Freiburg's form is WWLWW

The team achieved 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches

Freiburg celebrated two consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Celta de Vigo scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per game this season

At home, they scored 1.44 goals and conceded 1.5 goals

SC Freiburg averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded this season

Away from home, Freiburg conceded an average of 2.55 goals per game while scoring 1.45 goals

Estadio de Balaídos has seen an average of 3.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

历史交锋

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Celta de Vigo and SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg won this encounter 3-0 on April 9, 2026

Freiburg scored 3 goals, while Celta de Vigo conceded 0 goals

The away team was dominant in this fixture

关键球员

For Celta de Vigo, Ferran Jutglà (Attacker) shows rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games with a rating of 7.21

Ilaix Moriba (Midfielder) is also in rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games with a rating of 7.13

Javi Rueda (Defender) scored 1 goal in 3 games with a rating of 6.79, but shows declining form

For SC Freiburg, Matthias Ginter (Defender) is in stable form with 2 goals and 2 assists in 5 games with a rating of 7.31

Vincenzo Grifo (Midfielder) has stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 matches with a rating of 7.10

Igor Matanovic (Attacker) shows stable form with 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games with a rating of 7.04

门将

Ionuț Radu, Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, achieved 8 clean sheets this season

His season rating is 6.58, recently 6.22 with declining form

Noah Atubolu of SC Freiburg recorded 6 clean sheets

His season rating is 6.88, recently 6.90 with stable form

影响因素

Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.44 goals and conceded 1.5 goals per home game

Estadio de Balaídos is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last five fixtures

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

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