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Europa League

SC Freiburg - Celta de Vigo

04/09/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
SC Freiburg
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Celta de Vigo
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

6%
xG 分解
SFCDV

SC Freiburg

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.55倍)
+0.27
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.16
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第16位, 相差9位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.06
主场表现强势 (场均2.3球 vs 总体1.6球)
全员可用

Celta de Vigo

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.11
状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.11
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第7位, 相差9位)
-0.10
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.10
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.05
Pablo Durán替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.6球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

52%

平局

27%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

48%

非平局

73%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for SC Freiburg with 52% probability
  • CRITICAL: Only 34% of SC Freiburg's goal production is available
  • Europa-Park Stadion is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.2 goals per match with 80% Over 2.5 in the last 5 games
风险因素
  • Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches are available between the teams
  • Despite positive trends from Advanced Stats, SC Freiburg's form (LLWWL) shows some inconsistency
  • Celta de Vigo conceded an average of 1.6 goals in recent matches, which is above their season average of 1.23
概述

SC Freiburg (7th place, 17 points) host Celta de Vigo (16th place, 13 points) at Europa-Park Stadion

Europa League match on April 9, 2026, 9:00 PM

Freiburg aims to consolidate their table position, while Celta needs points to catch up

近期状态

SC Freiburg's form across all competitions is LLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last 5 matches, the team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses

The most recent game ended in a 2-3 loss against FC Bayern München

Celta de Vigo's form across all competitions is DDWLW

The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The most recent game ended in a 3-2 win against Valencia

统计数据

SC Freiburg scored an average of 1.46 goals per game this season and conceded 1.68 goals per game

At home, Freiburg scored an average of 1.44 goals and conceded 1.06 goals per home match

Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.47 goals per game this season and conceded 1.23 goals per game

Away, Celta scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.14 goals per away match

Europa-Park Stadion has averaged 4.2 goals per match in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, and 4 out of 5 had over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between SC Freiburg and Celta de Vigo

Therefore, an analysis of historical encounters is not possible

关键球员

Igor Matanovic (SC Freiburg) shows rising form with 4 goals in 3 games

He scored 2 goals across the season

Vincenzo Grifo (SC Freiburg) contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Yuito Suzuki (SC Freiburg) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

Ferran Jutglà (Celta de Vigo) is in rising form with 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

Williot Swedberg (Celta de Vigo) scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Ilaix Moriba (Celta de Vigo) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

门将

Noah Atubolu is the goalkeeper for SC Freiburg

He has kept 5 clean sheets this season, 2 of which were in home matches

Ionuț Radu is the goalkeeper for Celta de Vigo

He kept 8 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in away matches

影响因素

Europa-Park Stadion is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals per match in the last 5 games

The home team, SC Freiburg, scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.06 goals per home game

Celta de Vigo scored an average of 1.5 goals away and conceded 1.14 goals per away game

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