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Europa League

Nottingham Forest - Porto

04/16/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Nottingham Forest
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Porto
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
NFPOR

Nottingham Forest

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.35
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.12
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第5位, 相差8位)
-0.11
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.01
Igor Jesus替补席 (7球, 1助攻)
Nikola Milenković替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
42%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.4球)

Porto

防守实力 (场均失0.6球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.60
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.3倍)
+0.41
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.17
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第13位, 相差8位)
+0.06
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.01
Pepê替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Victor Froholdt替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

29%

平局

29%

客胜

42%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

双重机会

主胜或平局

58%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

71%

双方进球

56%

44%

关键因素
  • Porto's strong season record (2.03 goals/game, 0.48 goals conceded/game) indicates clear superiority
  • The mathematical analysis sees Porto as the favorite with a 42% win probability
  • Nottingham Forest's current form with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches shows a positive trend
风险因素
  • Igor Jesus (7G/1A) and Nikola Milenković (1G/1A) are missing for Nottingham Forest, with only 68% of the starting eleven's seasonal goal threat available
  • Porto has not won any of the two head-to-head matches against Nottingham Forest (1 loss, 1 draw)
  • Porto conceded an average of 1.0 goals in recent matches, compared to the season average of 0.59
概述

Nottingham Forest (13th place, 14 points) host Porto (5th place, 17 points) at The City Ground

Europa League match on April 16, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical analysis sees Porto as the favorite with a 42% win probability

Nottingham Forest is in the mid-table, while Porto competes for the top spots

近期状态

Nottingham Forest shows a form of DWWDD across all competitions

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 matches

The last result was a draw, and the team has 2 consecutive draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Porto has a form of WWDDW across all competitions

This includes 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches

Their last game ended with a win

统计数据

Nottingham Forest averages 1.00 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals per game this season

Nottingham Forest's home record shows 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per home game

Porto is significantly stronger offensively with an average of 2.03 goals per game and has a robust defense with only 0.48 goals conceded

Porto's away record shows 2.00 goals scored and 0.53 goals conceded per away game

At The City Ground, an average of 1.4 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 20% of the matches ended with over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, Nottingham Forest has won 1 game, Porto none

There has been 1 draw between the teams

Nottingham Forest scored a total of 3 goals, Porto 1 goal

The last encounter on April 9, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Historically, the home team dominated these encounters

关键球员

For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White, Nicolás Domínguez, and Neco Williams are key players

Morgan Gibbs-White scored 1 goal in the last 367 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 6.93

Nicolás Domínguez recently recorded 1 goal in 235 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 7.03

Neco Williams contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 359 minutes with rising form and a season average rating of 6.96

For Porto, William Gomes, Gabri Veiga, and Borja Sainz are crucial players

William Gomes recently shined with 4 goals in 201 minutes with rising form and a season average rating of 6.83

Gabri Veiga contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 262 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 7.19

Borja Sainz provided 1 assist in the last 170 minutes with stable form and a season average rating of 6.89

门将

Stefan Ortega is the goalkeeper for Nottingham Forest

His team has recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Diogo Costa is in goal for Porto

Porto has managed an impressive 18 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Nottingham Forest scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.43 goals per home game in their own stadium

The City Ground recorded an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 20% ended with over 2.5 goals

The playing surface is grass

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