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Europa Conference League

FSV Mainz 05 - Strasbourg

04/09/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
FSV Mainz 05
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Strasbourg
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
FM0STR

FSV Mainz 05

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.28
状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.19
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.31倍)
+0.17
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.10
排名劣势 (第7位 vs 第1位, 相差6位)
-0.10
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.07
Jae-sung Lee未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均2.2球 vs 总体1.4球)

Strasbourg

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.22
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
+0.12
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
-0.12
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.11
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第7位, 相差6位)
+0.04
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.01
Sebastian Nanasi替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
Joaquín Panichelli未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

27%

客胜

29%

进球数

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

双重机会

主胜或平局

71%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

73%

双方进球

59%

41%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 43% for Mainz 05
  • Mainz 05 is unbeaten in the last 5 games and has achieved 4 consecutive wins (DWWWW)
  • Strasbourg shows positive form and currently scores an average of 2.3 goals per game
风险因素
  • Strasbourg concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game
  • FSV Mainz 05 has several injury-related absences, including N. Amiri (Heel Injury) and R. Zentner (Groin Injury)
概述

FSV Mainz 05 (7th place, 13 points) hosts Strasbourg (1st place, 16 points) at the Mewa Arena. This Europa Conference League match takes place on April 9, 2026, 9:00 PM. Mainz aims to catch up in the competition, while Strasbourg looks to defend its top position.

近期状态

FSV Mainz 05 shows strong current form with a record of DWWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)

Their last result was a win, and the team has recorded 4 consecutive wins recently

Strasbourg also displays positive form with WDDWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

Their last game ended in a win, and they are unbeaten in their last 2 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.25 goals scored per game and 1.54 goals conceded per game

Strasbourg is more potent offensively with an average of 1.64 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game

At home, Mainz 05 averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded

Away from home, Strasbourg averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded

Mainz 05 kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Strasbourg managed 9 clean sheets

The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

历史交锋

No previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams were found in the dataset.

关键球员

For FSV Mainz 05, Paul Nebel (Midfielder) has 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.59 and is in rising form

Phillip Tietz (Attacker) contributed 2 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.85

Kaishu Sano (Midfielder) showed a rating of 7.26 in the last 5 games and is in rising form

Not on lineup: Jae-sung Lee (2 goals, 2 assists)

For Strasbourg, Martial Godo (Attacker) is in good form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and an average rating of 7.41

Valentín Barco (Midfielder) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.09

Guela Doué (Defender) provided 1 assist in the last 5 games and has a rating of 7.28 in rising form

Not on lineup: Sebastian Nanasi (1 goal, 3 assists), Joaquín Panichelli (2 goals, 0 assists)

门将

FSV Mainz 05 goalkeeper Daniel Batz played over 450 minutes in the last 5 games and has 3 clean sheets this season

Strasbourg goalkeeper Mike Penders also played 5 games for over 450 minutes and recorded 9 clean sheets this season

影响因素

FSV Mainz 05 has an average of 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded in home games

Strasbourg concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game

The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

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