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Europa Conference League

Strasbourg - FSV Mainz 05

04/16/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Strasbourg
1.9
Total xG
2.9
FSV Mainz 05
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
xG 分解
STRFM0

Strasbourg

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.36
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
+0.26
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.12
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.11
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第7位, 相差6位)
+0.05
Guela Doué未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均2.7球 vs 总体1.8球)

FSV Mainz 05

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.21
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.08
排名劣势 (第7位 vs 第1位, 相差6位)
-0.07
Jae-sung Lee未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

54%

平局

25%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

46%

非平局

75%

双方进球

57%

43%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Strasbourg with a 54% probability
  • Strasbourg is at the top of the league and displays a strong defense at home with only 0.67 goals conceded per game
  • FSV Mainz 05 won the only direct encounter with a 2-0 score
风险因素
  • FSV Mainz 05 had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Strasbourg lost the last direct encounter against FSV Mainz 05 away
  • FSV Mainz 05 plays counter-oriented with an average of 42% possession
概述

Strasbourg (1st place, 16 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (7th place, 13 points) at the Stade de la Meinau

The Europa Conference League match takes place on April 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Strasbourg leads the league, while Mainz is in the midfield

The mathematical analysis suggests a 54% home win for Strasbourg

近期状态

Strasbourg's form in the last five games is DDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last game was a 0-2 away loss against FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 shows a form of WWWWL in their last five games

This means 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match was a 0-1 home loss against SC Freiburg

统计数据

Strasbourg averages 1.6 goals per home game and concedes only 0.67 goals

This led to 7 clean sheets at home

FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.2 away goals and concedes 1.73 goals per game

They achieved only 1 clean sheet away

At Stade de la Meinau, an average of 2.4 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches, 40% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Strasbourg scores consistently (~1.8 goals per game)

FSV Mainz 05 is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.3)

历史交锋

There has been 1 direct encounter between these two teams

FSV Mainz 05 won this match 2-0 on April 9, 2026

Mainz scored 2 goals, while Strasbourg remained goalless

FSV Mainz 05 was dominant in this last encounter

关键球员

For Strasbourg, Martial Godo shows rising form in 4 of 5 recent games with 2 goals and 1 assist (total 4 season goals, 2 assists)

Julio Enciso participated in 5 of 5 recent games, scoring 1 goal and has a total of 2 season goals and 2 assists (stable form)

Diego Moreira scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in 5 of 5 recent games (total 0 season goals, 2 assists, stable form)

For FSV Mainz 05, Paul Nebel shows rising form in 5 of 5 recent games with 2 goals and 2 assists (total 0 season goals, 3 assists)

Kaishu Sano scored 1 goal in 4 of 5 recent games (total 1 season goal, 1 assist, rising form)

Phillip Tietz scored 2 goals in 5 of 5 recent games (total 0 season goals, 0 assists, rising form)

门将

Strasbourg's goalkeeper Mike Penders played 11 season games and achieved 7 clean sheets in home games

His average rating in the last 5 games is 7.15

Mainz's goalkeeper Daniel Batz played 5 season games and kept 1 clean sheet in away games

His average rating in the last 5 games is 7.06

影响因素

Strasbourg benefits from home advantage at Stade de la Meinau

The team scores an average of 1.6 home goals and concedes only 0.67 goals

The stadium has an average of 2.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% and over 2.5 goals in 40% of matches

The playing surface is grass

Valentín Barco (19 games), Mike Penders (19 games), and Samir El Mourabet (20 games) have significant experience at Stade de la Meinau

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