Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim - FSV Mainz 05
04/04/2026, 01:30 PM
预期进球
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%xG 分解
TSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
56%
平局
26%
客胜
19%
进球数
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
双重机会
主胜或平局
81%
客胜或平局
44%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
54%
否
46%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Hoffenheim with 56% probability and 1.83 expected goals
- Mainz 05 shows a positive form trend with three consecutive wins and is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
- Hoffenheim's home strength with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per home game
风险因素
- FSV Mainz 05 is missing 42% of their seasonal goals due to the absence of N. Amiri (only 58% of goal threat available)
- TSG Hoffenheim shows a negative form trend with stalled goal production recently (1.4 compared to a season average of 2.1)
概述
TSG Hoffenheim (5th place, 50 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (11th place, 30 points) at the PreZero Arena
Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 3:30 PM
TSG aims to consolidate their position in the upper third of the table
近期状态
TSG Hoffenheim shows inconsistent form with DLWDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses) in their last five matches
Their last result was a loss
TSG's goal production has stalled, averaging 1.4 goals per game recently, compared to a season average of 2.1
FSV Mainz 05 is in strong form with DDWWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) and three consecutive wins
Mainz is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.3)
统计数据
TSG Hoffenheim averages 2.0 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.44 goals
In home matches, their average is 2.0 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded
FSV Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.22 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per game
Away from home, Mainz averages 1.23 goals scored and concedes 1.92 goals
At the PreZero Arena, the last 5 games saw an average of 2.2 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games (40%) and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 games (40%)
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches between these two teams, TSG Hoffenheim secured 1 win, while FSV Mainz 05 won 2 times
There were 2 draws
The goal difference is 5:8 in favor of Mainz
The last encounter, on November 21, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
The recent head-to-head record indicates dominance by the away team
关键球员
For TSG Hoffenheim, Fisnik Asllani (8 goals, 6 assists, avg 7.04 rating) and Grischa Prömel (7 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.94 rating) are key offensive players
Alexander Prass shows good development with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a rising form trend
For FSV Mainz 05, Paul Nebel is currently the crucial player with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a strongly rising form trend
Danny da Costa (1 goal, 2 assists in the last 5 games) and Jae-sung Lee (1 goal in the last 5 games) are also noteworthy
门将
For TSG Hoffenheim, Oliver Baumann is in goal, having kept 6 clean sheets in 27 appearances this season
For FSV Mainz 05, Daniel Batz is between the sticks, with 3 clean sheets in 15 appearances
影响因素
TSG Hoffenheim shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 2.0 goals scored and a solid defense with 1.07 goals conceded per home game
FSV Mainz 05 is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.92 goals while scoring only 1.23 goals
The PreZero Arena saw an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches