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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund

04/04/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 2
预期进球
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Borussia Dortmund
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
VSBD

VfB Stuttgart

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.43
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.06
Jamie Leweling替补席 (7球, 6助攻)
Ermedin Demirovic替补席 (9球, 2助攻)
Bilal El Khannouss替补席 (3球, 3助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅81%可用)

Borussia Dortmund

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
-0.05
Karim Adeyemi替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
Felix Nmecha未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2.2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.72
+0.72
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

27%

客胜

29%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

双重机会

主胜或平局

71%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

73%

双方进球

60%

40%

关键因素
  • Home Strength: Mathematical analysis projects a 44% home win probability for Stuttgart
  • Head-to-Head: Stuttgart dominated the last 5 home games against Dortmund with 4 wins and a goal difference of 13:5
  • Offensive Power: Stuttgart's home offense averages 2.00 goals per game, while Dortmund concedes 1.25 goals away
概述

VfB Stuttgart (3rd place, 53 points) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 61 points) at the MHPArena. This is a Bundesliga match on April 4, 2026, 6:30 PM. Both teams aim to solidify their positions in the top group.

近期状态

VfB Stuttgart shows mixed form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: DLWLW). Their last game was a win. Borussia Dortmund has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: LLWWW). Their last three games ended in a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

VfB Stuttgart scored an average of 2.07 goals per game this season and conceded 1.33 goals. At home, the average is 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded. Borussia Dortmund averaged 2.15 goals scored per game and conceded 1.04 goals. Away, Dortmund scores 2.08 goals and concedes 1.25 goals per game. The MHPArena has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart recorded 4 home wins and 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 13:5 in favor of VfB Stuttgart. The last encounter on November 22, 2025, ended in a 3:3 draw. VfB Stuttgart has been dominant in recent meetings.

关键球员

For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav (18 goals, 6 assists, Ø 7.38 rating), Maximilian Mittelstädt (4 goals, 4 assists, Ø 7.22 rating), and Chris Führich (4 goals, 5 assists, Ø 7.01 rating) are key players. Undav shows stable form with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games. Mittelstädt provided 1 assist with a stable trend. Jamie Leweling (7G/6A), Ermedin Demirovic (9G/2A), and Bilal El Khannouss (3G/3A) are not selected, reducing VfB's goal threat by 19%. For Borussia Dortmund, Nico Schlotterbeck (4 goals, 1 assist, Ø 7.37 rating), Julian Ryerson (0 goals, 13 assists, Ø 7.05 rating), and Serhou Guirassy (13 goals, 2 assists, Ø 7.01 rating) are crucial. Ryerson shows stable form with 2 assists in his last 5 games. Guirassy scored 2 goals in his last 5 games with a slightly declining trend. Karim Adeyemi (6G/3A) and Felix Nmecha (2G/3A) are not selected.

门将

VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper, Alexander Nübel, has played 27 season games and kept 10 clean sheets. Gregor Kobel, Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper, also played 27 season games and achieved 12 clean sheets. Nübel shows a slightly declining form trend, while Kobel is stable.

影响因素

The MHPArena, a grass pitch, has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. VfB Stuttgart is strong at home with 2.00 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game, showing both offensive power and defensive stability. The home advantage could play a role for Stuttgart.

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