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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Hamburger SV

04/12/2026, 03:30 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
VfB Stuttgart
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Hamburger SV
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
VSHS

VfB Stuttgart

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.38
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.17
状态下滑 (1.4 vs 2 赛季平均)
-0.17
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第12位, 相差8位)
+0.07
Bilal El Khannouss替补席 (3球, 3助攻)
Nikolas Nartey替补席 (3球, 2助攻)

Hamburger SV

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍)
-0.70
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第4位, 相差8位)
-0.08
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04
Luka Vuskovic未进大名单 (5球, 0助攻)
Albert Sambi Lokonga未进大名单 (5球, 0助攻)
Miro Muheim未进大名单 (0球, 4助攻)
Philip Otele替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
26%进球产出缺失 (仅79%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

56%

平局

26%

客胜

18%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

82%

客胜或平局

44%

非平局

74%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for VfB Stuttgart with 56% probability
  • VfB Stuttgart recorded an average of 5.6 shots on target in the last 5 games and shows strong offensive capabilities
  • Hamburger SV concedes an average of 2.30 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability
风险因素
  • VfB Stuttgart's goal production is declining, with 1.4 goals per game recently compared to a season average of 2.0 goals
  • The form of Ermedin Demirovic (VfB attacker) with 0.39 goals per 90 minutes recently is declining compared to his season average of 0.61
  • Hamburger SV shows a counter-oriented approach with an average of 43% possession in the last 5 games
概述

VfB Stuttgart (4th place, 53 points) host Hamburger SV (12th place, 31 points) at the MHPArena

Bundesliga match on April 12, 2026, 5:30 PM

VfB Stuttgart are fighting for a Champions League spot, while HSV is in the mid-table

近期状态

VfB Stuttgart's form across all competitions is LWLWL

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses from the last 5 games

VfB Stuttgart's last match ended in a loss

Hamburger SV shows a form of LWDLD

This is 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses from the last 5 games

Hamburger SV's last result was a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

VfB Stuttgart scores an average of 2.00 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals per match this season

At home, VfB Stuttgart scores an average of 2.00 goals and concedes 1.27 goals

Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.14 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals

Away from home, Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.10 goals and concedes 2.30 goals

At the MHPArena, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game

In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

Historically, there has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams

Hamburger SV won this one game

The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Hamburger SV

The last encounter on November 30, 2025, ended with a 1:2 away win for Hamburger SV

关键球员

For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav (18 goals, 6 assists, average rating 7.36), Jamie Leweling (7 goals, 6 assists, average rating 7.07), and Ermedin Demirovic (9 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.02) are important offensive players

Undav shows stable form with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Leweling scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and is in stable form

Demirovic registered 1 goal in the last 5 games, his form is declining

Not nominated: Bilal El Khannouss (3 goals/3 assists), Nikolas Nartey (3 goals/2 assists)

On Hamburger SV's side, Fábio Vieira (5 goals, 5 assists, average rating 7.09), Ransford Königsdörffer (5 goals, 2 assists, average rating 6.71), and Rayan Philippe (5 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.73) are crucial

Vieira contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his form is declining

Königsdörffer and Philippe have not scored or assisted in their last 3 games, their form is also declining

Not nominated: Luka Vuskovic (5 goals/0 assists), Albert Sambi Lokonga (5 goals/0 assists), Miro Muheim (0 goals/4 assists), Philip Otele (1 goal/1 assist)

门将

Alexander Nübel, goalkeeper for VfB Stuttgart (average rating 7.02), achieved 10 clean sheets this season

Daniel Heuer Fernandes, goalkeeper for Hamburger SV (average rating 6.86), kept 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

VfB Stuttgart scores an average of 2.00 goals and concedes 1.27 goals at home

The MHPArena grass surface has a history of an average of 2.6 goals per game

In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

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