Bundesliga
St. Pauli - FC Bayern München
04/11/2026, 04:30 PM
预期进球
1.1
3.2
2.1
1:1
11%1:2
10%0:2
9%1:3
7%0:3
6%xG 分解
St. Pauli
FC Bayern München
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
19%
平局
23%
客胜
57%
进球数
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
双重机会
主胜或平局
43%
客胜或平局
81%
非平局
77%
双方进球
是
61%
否
39%
关键因素
- Table position and form: Bayern are league leaders and in top form (4 wins, 1 draw in 5 games), St. Pauli are battling relegation (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
- FC Bayern's offensive strength: The Bavarians score an average of 3.67 goals per away game and have mathematically 2.07 predicted goals
- Head-to-head record: FC Bayern has won all three previous encounters against St. Pauli
风险因素
- FC Bayern's limited squad strength: Only 67% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available without Harry Kane (31G/5A), Luis Díaz (15G/11A), Serge Gnabry (8G/6A), Lennart Karl (5G/4A), Josip Stanisic (2G/3A), Jonathan Tah (2G/2A), Aleksandar Pavlovic (3G/1A), and Dayot Upamecano (1G/1A)
- St. Pauli's limited shots on target production: The team averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- FC Bayern's declining goal production: Recent goal production is at an average of 2.8 goals, while the season average is 3.4 goals
概述
St. Pauli (16th place, 25 points) host league leaders FC Bayern München (1st place, 73 points) at Millerntor-Stadion
Bundesliga match on April 11, 2026, 6:30 PM
FC Bayern are comfortably leading the league, while St. Pauli are battling relegation and fighting for crucial points
近期状态
St. Pauli shows an inconsistent form with 'WDLLD' across all competitions
The team recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches
Most recently, St. Pauli drew 1-1 away against FC Union Berlin
FC Bayern München presents itself in top form with 'DWWWW'
The Bavarians achieved four wins and one draw in their last five games
Their last match was a 2-1 away victory against Real Madrid
The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 57% for an away win for FC Bayern
A draw is calculated with a 23% probability, and a home win for St. Pauli with 19%
统计数据
St. Pauli scores an average of 0.89 goals per game and concedes 1.61 goals over the season
At home, they score 0.88 and concede 1.25 goals per home game
St. Pauli kept a clean sheet in 5 games
FC Bayern München shows a strong offense with an average of 3.57 goals per game and a stable defense of 0.96 goals conceded
Away from home, Bayern is particularly dangerous with 3.67 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per away game
FC Bayern kept a clean sheet in 10 games
At Millerntor-Stadion, an average of 2.2 goals per game were scored in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In three direct encounters, St. Pauli has not been able to secure a win against FC Bayern München
FC Bayern won all three matches
The goal difference of 7:3 clearly favors the Bavarians
The last meeting ended with a 3-1 away win for FC Bayern on November 29, 2025
关键球员
For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani with 5 season goals and 3 assists, and Mathias Pereira Lage with 2 season goals and 2 assists, are important offensive players
Mathias Pereira Lage scored 2 goals in his last five matches
Andréas Hountondji contributed 4 goals this season, with 1 in his last five games
For FC Bayern München, Michael Olise stands out with 11 season goals and 18 assists
Joshua Kimmich is a central figure in midfield with 2 goals and 6 assists
Jamal Musiala scored 1 goal and 2 assists this season, and found the net 2 times in his last five games
Not nominated for St. Pauli is Eric Smith (2G/2A)
门将
Nikola Vasilj of St. Pauli played in 28 season matches and kept 5 clean sheets
His form trend shows a rising trajectory with a delta rating of 0.49
Manuel Neuer of FC Bayern München made 20 season appearances and achieved 10 clean sheets
His form trend is also rising with a delta of 0.38
影响因素
The home team St. Pauli scored 0.88 goals per home game and conceded 1.25 goals at Millerntor-Stadion
FC Bayern München scored an average of 3.67 goals away and conceded 1.17 goals
Millerntor-Stadion recorded an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of games