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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen

04/26/2026, 01:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Werder Bremen
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
xG 分解
VSWB

VfB Stuttgart

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.36
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第15位, 相差10位)
+0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.06
Chris Führich替补席 (6球, 6助攻)
Ramon Hendriks替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Werder Bremen

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.8倍)
-0.65
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第5位, 相差10位)
-0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.00
Justin Njinmah替补席 (5球, 0助攻)
Marco Grüll未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

28%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

72%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Mathematical Analysis: The pipeline prediction indicates a home win with 53% probability, supported by Stuttgart's strong season standing (5th place versus 15th place)
  • Matchup Advantage: Stuttgart's offensive home strength (averaging 2 goals per home game) contrasts with Bremen's defensive vulnerability away (averaging 1.8 goals conceded per away game)
  • Tactical Strength: VfB Stuttgart showed offensive dominance in their last five games with an average of 7.0 shots on target, while Werder Bremen recorded only 4.6 shots on target on average
风险因素
  • Defensive Vulnerability: Stuttgart's recent defensive performance shows a decline, with an average of 2.0 goals conceded in recent matches compared to a season average of 1.4
  • Inconsistent Form: Both teams display fluctuating form in their last five games (Stuttgart LWLWL, Bremen LWLLW), which could lead to some unpredictability
  • Even H2H Record: The head-to-head record is even, which could pose a challenge for Stuttgart despite current league positions
概述

VfB Stuttgart (5th place, 56 points) hosts Werder Bremen (15th place, 31 points) at the MHPArena. The Bundesliga match is on April 26, 2026, 3:30 PM. Stuttgart is fighting for international spots, while Bremen is battling against relegation.

近期状态

VfB Stuttgart has shown inconsistent form in their last five matches with LWLWL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Recently, they had a 2-4 loss against Bayern and a 4-0 win against Hamburger SV. Werder Bremen also shows a form of LWLLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). In their last match, Bremen celebrated a 3-1 win against Hamburger SV, preceded by a 1-3 loss against Köln. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

VfB Stuttgart is offensively strong this season with an average of 2.07 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1.4 goals per game. Stuttgart kept 11 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 22 matches. At home, Stuttgart scores an average of 2 goals and concedes only 1.08 goals, with 8 home clean sheets. Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.17 goals per game and concedes 1.77 goals. Bremen kept 6 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 17 matches. Away, Bremen scores 1.13 goals and concedes 1.8 goals, with 3 away clean sheets. At the MHPArena, the last five matches averaged 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of games and 60% ending with over 2.5 goals.

历史交锋

In the previous five head-to-head matches, the record is even. Both teams won two games each, and one match ended in a draw. VfB Stuttgart scored 10 goals, while Werder Bremen scored 6 goals. The last encounter saw Werder Bremen win 4-0 on December 14, 2025.

关键球员

For VfB Stuttgart, key players include Deniz Undav (18 goals, 6 assists, 7.36 avg rating), Jamie Leweling (7 goals, 7 assists, 7.07 avg rating), and Bilal El Khannouss (4 goals, 4 assists, 7.2 avg rating). Chris Führic (6 goals/6 assists) and Ramon Hendriks (0 goals/2 assists) are not nominated for the starting lineup. For Werder Bremen, Jens Stage (9 goals, 2 assists, 7.14 avg rating), Romano Schmid (3 goals, 8 assists, 7.04 avg rating), and Cameron Puertas (1 goal, 2 assists, 6.92 avg rating) stand out. Justin Njinmah (5 goals/0 assists) and Marco Grüll (3 goals/1 assist) are not nominated for the starting lineup.

门将

Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart has recorded 11 clean sheets in 30 season appearances, including 8 at home, with an average rating of 7.01. Mio Backhaus of Werder Bremen made 28 season appearances and kept 6 clean sheets, with an average rating of 6.92.

影响因素

The MHPArena, a grass surface, has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 40% of games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals. VfB Stuttgart's home advantage is evident with an average of 2 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded per home game. Werder Bremen concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game.

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