Bundesliga
RB Leipzig - FC Union Berlin
04/24/2026, 06:30 PM
预期进球
2.6
3.6
1.0
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
8%4:1
5%4:0
5%xG 分解
RB Leipzig
FC Union Berlin
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
70%
平局
18%
客胜
12%
进球数
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
69%
Under 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
47%
Under 3.5
53%
双重机会
主胜或平局
88%
客胜或平局
30%
非平局
82%
双方进球
是
59%
否
41%
关键因素
- Prediction dominance: The mathematical analysis clearly favors RB Leipzig with a 70% win probability
- Form contrast: RB Leipzig is in top form with 4 consecutive wins, while Union Berlin is in a negative streak
- Home strength vs. Away weakness: Leipzig scores almost 2 goals per game at home, while Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.33 goals away
风险因素
- Away weakness: FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
- Historical upset: The last head-to-head encounter resulted in a 3-1 away victory for FC Union Berlin
概述
RB Leipzig (3rd place, 59 points) host FC Union Berlin (11th place, 32 points) at the Red Bull Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on April 24, 2026, 8:30 PM. Leipzig are fighting for Champions League spots, while Union are in the mid-table. The mathematical analysis gives a clear favorite role to the home team with a 70% win probability, with predicted goals of 2.55 for Leipzig and 1.00 for Union Berlin
近期状态
RB Leipzig is in strong form (LWWWW), winning 4 of their last 5 matches. They have won their last 4 league games, most recently a 3-1 away victory against Eintracht Frankfurt. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
FC Union Berlin shows weaker form (WLDLL) with 3 losses and 1 draw in their last 4 matches. They recently lost 1-2 to VfL Wolfsburg and 1-3 to Heidenheim. Their form trend is negative
统计数据
RB Leipzig shows strong offensive power this season with an average of 1.97 goals per game, and 1.94 goals at home. Defensively, they concede an average of 1.23 goals per game, and only 1.0 goal at home. The team kept 11 clean sheets and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 matches. RB Leipzig consistently scores around 2.1 goals per game.
FC Union Berlin averages 1.13 goals per game and 1.17 goals in away matches. Their defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.73 goals per game and 2.33 goals per away game. The team recorded 6 clean sheets and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches. Union Berlin's goal production is stagnant at 0.8 goals per game, compared to a season average of 1.2.
At the Red Bull Arena, the last 5 matches saw an average of 2.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
历史交锋
In 5 previous head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig secured 2 wins, FC Union Berlin 1 win, and there were 2 draws. RB Leipzig scored a total of 6 goals, while FC Union Berlin scored 3 goals. The last encounter on December 12, 2025, ended in a 3-1 away victory for FC Union Berlin
关键球员
For RB Leipzig, Yan Diomande is a key player with 12 goals and 6 assists and a season rating of 7.34, as is Christoph Baumgartner with 12 goals and 8 assists and a rating of 7.19. Antonio Nusa contributed 4 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.08.
For FC Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic stands out with 2 goals and 9 assists. Rani Khedira has 5 goals and 1 assist, and Oliver Burke also has 5 goals and 1 assist
门将
Maarten Vandevoordt is in goal for RB Leipzig, achieving an average rating of 6.92 in 9 season appearances. The team kept 6 clean sheets in home games.
For FC Union Berlin, Frederik Rönnow is the starting goalkeeper, having made 29 season appearances with an average rating of 6.70. The team kept 3 clean sheets in away games
影响因素
RB Leipzig averages 1.94 goals at home and concedes only 1.0 goal per game, indicating a clear home advantage. The Red Bull Arena is known for an average of 2.0 goals per game. The last 5 matches at the stadium saw both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 cases and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches