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Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - FC Bayern München

04/25/2026, 01:30 PM

3 : 4
预期进球
FSV Mainz 05
1.4
Total xG
3.1
FC Bayern München
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
FM0FBM

FSV Mainz 05

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.38
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第1位, 相差9位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.09
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.09
J. Lee未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅83%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.6球 vs 总体1.3球)

FC Bayern München

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.49倍)
+0.11
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第10位, 相差9位)
+0.07
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3.6球)
+0.03
Michael Olise替补席 (12球, 18助攻)
Serge Gnabry未进大名单 (8球, 6助攻)
Joshua Kimmich替补席 (2球, 6助攻)
Josip Stanisic替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Jonathan Tah替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
32%进球产出缺失 (仅65%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均2.3球 vs 总体3.5球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.71
+0.71
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

26%

客胜

43%

进球数

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

双重机会

主胜或平局

57%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

74%

双方进球

63%

37%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis assigns a 43% win probability to FC Bayern München
  • Current Form: FC Bayern München is in outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins, while Mainz 05 has only recorded 2 wins in their last 5 games
  • Bayern's Tactical Strength: FC Bayern München showed a possession-dominant style (67% possession) and averaged 8.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, highlighting their offensive power
风险因素
  • Reduced Squad Strength: For FC Bayern München, only 66% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, as key players like Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, and Joshua Kimmich are not in the lineup
  • Historical Draw: The last head-to-head match on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw, suggesting potential resilience from Mainz
概述

FSV Mainz 05 (10th place, 34 points) host league leaders FC Bayern München (1st place, 79 points) at the Mewa Arena

The Bundesliga match takes place on April 25, 2026, 3:30 PM

Mainz aims to improve its mid-table position, while Bayern looks to solidify its top spot

近期状态

FSV Mainz 05's current form across all competitions shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses (WWLLD)

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach

FC Bayern München is in top form with 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)

Bayern recently defeated VfB Stuttgart 4-2 and Real Madrid 4-3

统计数据

Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.21 goals per home game and concedes 1.29 goals

Mainz kept 2 clean sheets in home matches

FC Bayern München shows a strong offense away from home with an average of 3.77 goals scored and concedes 1.08 goals

Bayern kept 6 clean sheets in away matches

At the Mewa Arena, the last 5 games saw an average of 2.4 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 2 of these 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 matches

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München recorded 3 wins, while Mainz 05 won once and one match ended in a draw

The goal difference of 18:5 clearly favors Bayern

The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw at Bayern's home ground

关键球员

Nadiem Amiri (Mainz 05) demonstrates his scoring prowess with 11 goals and 2 assists this season, although his form has slightly declined recently

Phillip Tietz (Mainz 05) scored 3 goals and 2 assists this season and has 2 goals in his last 5 games, indicating a rising form trend

Kaishu Sano (Mainz 05) is a midfielder with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, scoring once in his last 5 appearances

Luis Díaz (FC Bayern München) is Bayern's top scorer with 15 goals and 13 assists, but his form shows a slight decline

Nicolas Jackson (FC Bayern München) contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 2 appearances, showing a rising form

Raphaël Guerreiro (FC Bayern München) has 5 goals and 2 assists this season, with his performance of 2 goals in 3 recent games indicating a rising trend

门将

For Mainz 05, Daniel Batz is in goal, having contributed to his team keeping 3 clean sheets in 18 appearances this season

For FC Bayern München, Jonas Urbig is the designated goalkeeper, and the team has recorded a total of 11 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per match in the last 5 games

The home advantage for Mainz 05 is reflected in an average of 1.21 home goals scored and 1.29 home goals conceded per game

FC Bayern München is offensively strong away from home with 3.77 goals scored and a solid defense of 1.08 goals conceded per away game

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