Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 - FC Bayern München
04/25/2026, 01:30 PM
预期进球
1.4
3.1
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
30%
平局
26%
客胜
43%
进球数
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
双重机会
主胜或平局
57%
客胜或平局
70%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
63%
否
37%
关键因素
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis assigns a 43% win probability to FC Bayern München
- Current Form: FC Bayern München is in outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins, while Mainz 05 has only recorded 2 wins in their last 5 games
- Bayern's Tactical Strength: FC Bayern München showed a possession-dominant style (67% possession) and averaged 8.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, highlighting their offensive power
风险因素
- Reduced Squad Strength: For FC Bayern München, only 66% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, as key players like Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, and Joshua Kimmich are not in the lineup
- Historical Draw: The last head-to-head match on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw, suggesting potential resilience from Mainz
概述
FSV Mainz 05 (10th place, 34 points) host league leaders FC Bayern München (1st place, 79 points) at the Mewa Arena
The Bundesliga match takes place on April 25, 2026, 3:30 PM
Mainz aims to improve its mid-table position, while Bayern looks to solidify its top spot
近期状态
FSV Mainz 05's current form across all competitions shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses (WWLLD)
Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Bayern München is in top form with 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)
Bayern recently defeated VfB Stuttgart 4-2 and Real Madrid 4-3
统计数据
Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.21 goals per home game and concedes 1.29 goals
Mainz kept 2 clean sheets in home matches
FC Bayern München shows a strong offense away from home with an average of 3.77 goals scored and concedes 1.08 goals
Bayern kept 6 clean sheets in away matches
At the Mewa Arena, the last 5 games saw an average of 2.4 total goals per match
Both teams scored in 2 of these 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 matches
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München recorded 3 wins, while Mainz 05 won once and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference of 18:5 clearly favors Bayern
The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw at Bayern's home ground
关键球员
Nadiem Amiri (Mainz 05) demonstrates his scoring prowess with 11 goals and 2 assists this season, although his form has slightly declined recently
Phillip Tietz (Mainz 05) scored 3 goals and 2 assists this season and has 2 goals in his last 5 games, indicating a rising form trend
Kaishu Sano (Mainz 05) is a midfielder with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, scoring once in his last 5 appearances
Luis Díaz (FC Bayern München) is Bayern's top scorer with 15 goals and 13 assists, but his form shows a slight decline
Nicolas Jackson (FC Bayern München) contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 2 appearances, showing a rising form
Raphaël Guerreiro (FC Bayern München) has 5 goals and 2 assists this season, with his performance of 2 goals in 3 recent games indicating a rising trend
门将
For Mainz 05, Daniel Batz is in goal, having contributed to his team keeping 3 clean sheets in 18 appearances this season
For FC Bayern München, Jonas Urbig is the designated goalkeeper, and the team has recorded a total of 11 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The Mewa Arena has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per match in the last 5 games
The home advantage for Mainz 05 is reflected in an average of 1.21 home goals scored and 1.29 home goals conceded per game
FC Bayern München is offensively strong away from home with 3.77 goals scored and a solid defense of 1.08 goals conceded per away game