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Champions League

Arsenal - Atlético Madrid

05/05/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Arsenal
2.2
Total xG
3.1
Atlético Madrid
0.9
最可能的比分

2:0

11%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
xG 分解
ARSAM

Arsenal

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
-1.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.29
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.23
状态下滑 (1.5 vs 2.2 赛季平均)
-0.20
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第14位, 相差13位)
+0.14
Noni Madueke替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Martín Zubimendi替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
11%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用)

Atlético Madrid

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.41
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第1位, 相差13位)
-0.14
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体2球)
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

66%

平局

21%

客胜

13%

进球数

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

双重机会

主胜或平局

87%

客胜或平局

34%

非平局

79%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Pipeline's Forecast: The mathematical analysis indicates a 66% probability of a home win for Arsenal
  • Table Position: Arsenal leads the Champions League table with 24 points, while Atlético Madrid is in 14th place
  • Home Strength: Arsenal scores an average of 1.90 goals per home game and concedes only 0.52 goals
风险因素
  • Limited data availability for similar weather conditions
  • Arsenal had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Atlético Madrid had only 3 days rest since their last match
概述

Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) hosts Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) at the Emirates Stadium for a Champions League match on May 5, 2026, 8:00 PM

Arsenal leads the table with an impressive record

The mathematical analysis considers Arsenal the clear favorite with a 66% probability of a home win

近期状态

Arsenal's form in their last five matches is DLWDW

This translates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last result was a 3-0 victory against Fulham

Atlético Madrid also shows a form of DLWDW

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games

Their last match ended in a 2-0 victory against Valencia

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Arsenal has scored an average of 1.91 goals and conceded 0.74 goals per game this season

At home, Arsenal averages 1.90 goals scored and 0.52 goals conceded

The team recorded 17 clean sheets

Atlético Madrid averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game

Away, their average is 1.67 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per game

Atlético Madrid kept 13 clean sheets this season

The Emirates Stadium sees an average of 1.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 20% of matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 40% of matches

历史交锋

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, Arsenal secured 1 win and there was 1 draw

Atlético Madrid has not yet won a match against Arsenal

Arsenal scored 5 goals, while Atlético Madrid scored 1 goal

The last encounter on April 29, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Arsenal has shown to be the more dominant team in recent direct matchups

关键球员

For Arsenal, Viktor Gyökeres is a key offensive player with 5 goals and 2 assists, holding an average rating of 6.93

He scored 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.11, showing a stable form trend

Bukayo Saka contributes 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.18, and his form is rising

Leandro Trossard provided 1 goal and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.03 and stable form

For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez is the top scorer with 10 goals and 4 assists (average rating 7.69)

He scored 2 goals in his last 3 games with a rating of 7.68, and his form trend is stable

Antoine Griezmann has 2 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.98 and stable form

Ademola Lookman contributed 2 goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 7.03 and a stable form trend

门将

Arsenal's goalkeeper, David Raya, has a season average rating of 7.16

Arsenal has achieved 17 clean sheets this season

For Atlético Madrid, goalkeeper Jan Oblak has a season average rating of 6.70

Atlético Madrid recorded 13 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Arsenal's home strength is evident with an average of 1.90 goals scored and only 0.52 goals conceded at home

The Emirates Stadium averages 1.8 goals per game

Both teams score in 20% of matches and over 2.5 goals occur in 40% of matches at this venue

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