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Champions League

Paris Saint Germain - FC Bayern München

04/28/2026, 07:00 PM

5 : 4
预期进球
Paris Saint Germain
1.6
Total xG
3.2
FC Bayern München
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
xG 分解
PSGFBM

Paris Saint Germain

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
-0.87
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第2位, 相差9位)
-0.16
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.15
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.10
全员可用

FC Bayern München

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.12
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3.8球)
+0.09
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.49倍)
+0.07
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第11位, 相差9位)
+0.07
Nicolas Jackson替补席 (3球, 3助攻)
Konrad Laimer替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均2.2球 vs 总体3.5球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.68
+0.68
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

26%

客胜

36%

进球数

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

双重机会

主胜或平局

64%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

74%

双方进球

64%

36%

关键因素
  • FC Bayern München's offensive power: FC Bayern München is clearly more offensively potent this season with an average of 3.65 goals per game compared to Paris Saint Germain (2.27 goals)
  • Current top form of both teams: Both teams have won their last five matches, indicating a high level of performance
  • Historical Bayern dominance: In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München won both encounters, which speaks for the visitors
风险因素
  • Short recovery time for FC Bayern München: The visitors had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
  • Potentially high-scoring match: Mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of both teams scoring (65%) and over 2.5 goals (61%)
概述

Paris Saint Germain (11th place, 14 points) hosts FC Bayern München (2nd place, 21 points) at the Parc des Princes

Champions League match on April 28, 2026, 9:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a close match with a 37% home win probability and a 36% away win probability

The model expects 1.59 goals for PSG and 1.57 goals for Bayern

近期状态

Paris Saint Germain shows excellent form in the last 5 games: WWWWW

This corresponds to 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

FC Bayern München also displays flawless form: WWWWW

This corresponds to 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

Both teams won their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Paris Saint Germain averages 2.27 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per season

FC Bayern München is offensively stronger with an average of 3.65 goals per game but concedes 1.03 goals

The Parc des Princes sees an average of 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the Parc des Princes, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals

PSG is strong at home with 2.24 goals scored and only 0.59 goals conceded per home game

Bayern is also very offensively strong away with 3.53 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded per away game

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, FC Bayern München dominated with 2 wins and 0 losses

Bayern scored 3 goals, while Paris Saint Germain scored 1 goal

The last encounter on November 4, 2025, ended with a 2-1 away win for FC Bayern München

The historical record favors the visitors

关键球员

For Paris Saint Germain, key players are in top form

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has 8 season goals and 5 assists with a season average rating of 7.65

Ousmane Dembélé has recently been strong with 4 goals and 1 assist in 4 of 5 games with rising form

Achraf Hakimi contributed significantly to the offense with 7 assists and has a seasonal average rating of 7.36

On the FC Bayern München side, Harry Kane is an important attacker with 12 season goals and 4 goals in the last 4 games

Michael Olise has 4 season goals and 6 assists, with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Jamal Musiala is an offensive playmaker with 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games with rising form

门将

Paris Saint Germain's goalkeeper Matvey Safonov has a seasonal average rating of 7.08 and maintained a rating of 6.67 in his last 5 appearances

FC Bayern München's goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has a seasonal average rating of 6.97 and achieved a rating of 7.02 in his last 3 appearances

Paris Saint Germain recorded 16 clean sheets this season, Bayern 11 clean sheets

影响因素

The Parc des Princes is considered a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.8 goals per game

Paris Saint Germain performs very strongly at home with 2.24 goals scored and 0.59 goals conceded per game

FC Bayern München is also an offensive powerhouse away with 3.53 goals and 1.13 goals conceded per game

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