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Champions League

Atlético Madrid - Arsenal

04/29/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Atlético Madrid
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Arsenal
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
AMARS

Atlético Madrid

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.27
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第1位, 相差13位)
-0.21
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.07
Robin Le Normand替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

Arsenal

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.58
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.41
状态下滑 (1 vs 2.2 赛季平均)
-0.35
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第14位, 相差13位)
+0.10
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.02
Kai Havertz未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Eberechi Eze替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.6球 vs 总体2.2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

27%

客胜

41%

进球数

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

双重机会

主胜或平局

59%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

73%

双方进球

62%

38%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Arsenal a higher win probability of 41%
  • Dominant league position: Arsenal leads the table with 24 points, while Atlético Madrid is in 14th place with 13 points
  • Arsenal's defensive strength: Arsenal has conceded an average of only 0.76 goals per game this season, compared to Atlético Madrid's 1.12
风险因素
  • Atlético Madrid's recent goal production is 1.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.0
  • Arsenal averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Arsenal's recent goal production is 1.0 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.2
概述

Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) host Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Champions League match on April 29, 2026, 9:00 PM

Arsenal enters this duel as the clear league leader

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The home team Atlético Madrid shows a form of LLDLW

In their last 5 games, they recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

The last result was a win

Arsenal comes into this match with the form WLDLW

They have achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

The last result was a win

统计数据

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.70 goals per game and concedes 1.12 goals per game this season

Arsenal is offensively stronger with an average of 1.88 goals and defensively more solid with 0.76 goals conceded per game

Atlético Madrid kept 12 clean sheets, Arsenal kept 16 clean sheets

At the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.73 goals at home and concedes 0.73 goals

Arsenal scores an average of 1.93 goals away and concedes 1.07 goals

历史交锋

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the two teams

Arsenal won 1 game, Atlético Madrid 0 games, and there were 0 draws

The goal difference is 0:4 in favor of Arsenal

The last encounter on October 21, 2025, ended with a 4:0 victory for Arsenal

关键球员

For Atlético Madrid, the key players are:

Julián Alvarez (Attacker): 9 season goals, 4 assists, Avg. 7.69 rating

Marcos Llorente (Defender): 4 season goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.03 rating

Antoine Griezmann (Attacker): 2 season goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.01 rating

For Arsenal, the key players are:

Gabriel Martinelli (Attacker): 6 season goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.24 rating

Declan Rice (Midfielder): 1 season goal, 2 assists, Avg. 7.34 rating

Noni Madueke (Attacker): 3 season goals, 0 assists, Avg. 7.36 rating

门将

Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Jan Oblak has an average season rating of 6.74 and 12 clean sheets

Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya has an average season rating of 7.16 and 16 clean sheets

影响因素

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano is a stadium where an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Atlético Madrid is strong at home with an average of 1.73 goals scored and 0.73 goals conceded per game

Arsenal shows a solid away performance with an average of 1.93 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per game

The playing surface is grass

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