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Europa League

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

04/30/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Nottingham Forest
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Aston Villa
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
NFAV

Nottingham Forest

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2.4球)
+0.27
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.27
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.27
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.17
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第2位, 相差11位)
-0.15
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.5球)

Aston Villa

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.29
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.23
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.23
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第13位, 相差11位)
+0.06
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.01
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.6球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

36%

平局

31%

客胜

32%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

68%

客胜或平局

64%

非平局

69%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Nottingham Forest can only field 44% of their seasonal goal production
  • Aston Villa can only field 51% of their seasonal goal production
  • Nottingham Forest is unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DDWWW), with the pipeline predicting a 36% win probability
风险因素
  • Aston Villa historically dominated with 3 wins in 5 head-to-head matches
  • Nottingham Forest is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their recent xG value (1.13) suggests
概述

Nottingham Forest (13th place, 14 points) host Aston Villa (2nd place, 21 points) at The City Ground

Europa League match on April 30, 2026, 8:00 PM

Aston Villa are contending for the top of the table, while Nottingham Forest are looking to climb

近期状态

Nottingham Forest show strong form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches (DDWWW)

Aston Villa recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (WDWWL)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Nottingham Forest average 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game

At home, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded

Aston Villa average 1.38 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded

Away from home, they score 1.43 goals and concede 1.71 goals

At The City Ground, an average of 1.8 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches so far, Nottingham Forest secured 1 win, Aston Villa 3 wins, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 7:11 in favor of Aston Villa

The last encounter on April 12, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

关键球员

For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White is a key player with 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, as is Igor Jesus with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Neco Williams, a defender, contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Morgan Rogers recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances, while John McGinn provided 2 assists

门将

Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Stefan Ortega has not scored in 5 season appearances

Aston Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez has also not scored in 8 season appearances

Nottingham Forest have achieved a total of 9 clean sheets this season, and Aston Villa also 9 clean sheets

影响因素

An average of 1.8 goals per game are scored at The City Ground

In 2 of 5 matches, both teams scored, and only in 1 of 5 matches were there more than 2.5 goals

Nottingham Forest average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded at home

Aston Villa average 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded away from home

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