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Europa League

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

05/07/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Aston Villa
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Nottingham Forest
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
AVNF

Aston Villa

排名优势 (第2位 vs 第13位, 相差11位)
+0.08
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.06
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.24倍)
+0.04
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.02
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.6球)
全员可用

Nottingham Forest

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.39
状态上升 (2.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.39
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第2位, 相差11位)
-0.15
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.29倍)
+0.12
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.12
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.03
Morgan Gibbs-White替补席 (3球, 3助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

28%

客胜

27%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

73%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

72%

双方进球

是

57%

否

43%

关键因素
  • Critical weakening of home offense: Aston Villa has only 50% of the goal production from non-injured key players available
  • Nottingham Forest's impressive form: The visitors have achieved five consecutive wins
  • Prediction: Aston Villa (46% win), draw/away win combined 55% – closer than expected
风险因素
  • Nottingham Forest: Morgan Gibbs-White (3G/3A) is missing, reducing assists by 31%
  • Short recovery time for Nottingham Forest: The team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
概述

Aston Villa (2nd place, 21 points) host Nottingham Forest (13th place, 14 points) at Villa Park on May 7, 2026, 8:00 PM for the Europa League

Aston Villa aims for top spot, Nottingham Forest for promotion

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Aston Villa's form: WWLLL, recently 3 losses

Nottingham Forest: WWWWW, 5 consecutive wins

Aston Villa is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than season average (1.6)

Nottingham Forest is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than season average (1.5)

统计数据

Aston Villa home: Avg. 1.4 goals scored, Avg. 1.0 goals conceded

Nottingham Forest away: Avg. 1.24 goals scored, Avg. 1.19 goals conceded

At Villa Park: Avg. 3.6 goals/game, 40% both teams score, 60% over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

5 head-to-head matches: Aston Villa 2 wins, Nottingham Forest 2 wins, 1 draw

Goal difference: Aston Villa 7, Nottingham Forest 6

Last encounter (2026-04-30): 1-0 for Nottingham Forest

关键球员

Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins (3G/1A in last 5, rising), John McGinn (0G/2A in last 5, rising), Emiliano Buendía (2G/0A in last 5, stable)

Nottingham Forest: Igor Jesus (3G/1A in last 5, stable), Chris Wood (2G/0A in last 5, stable), Elliot Anderson (1G/0A in last 5, stable)

门将

Emiliano Martínez (Aston Villa): 9 clean sheets this season

Stefan Ortega (Nottingham Forest): 9 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Match at Villa Park on grass pitch

Home advantage Aston Villa: Avg. 1.4 goals scored, Avg. 1.0 goals conceded

Venue Stats: Avg. 3.6 goals/game, 40% BTTS, 60% Over 2.5

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