Bundesliga
RB Leipzig - St. Pauli
05/09/2026, 01:30 PM
预期进球
2.3
3.1
0.8
2:0
12%2:1
10%1:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
7%xG 分解
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
70%
平局
20%
客胜
11%
进球数
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
双重机会
主胜或平局
89%
客胜或平局
30%
非平局
80%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Pipeline analysis: A home win probability of around 70% for RB Leipzig indicates a clear favorite
- Form and standings: RB Leipzig is in 3rd place with strong form, while St. Pauli is in 17th place fighting relegation
- Matchup advantage: RB Leipzig's strong home offense (2.0 goals/game) meets St. Pauli's weak away defense (2.08 goals conceded/game)
风险因素
- St. Pauli averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- St. Pauli concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
概述
RB Leipzig (3rd place, 62 points) host St. Pauli (17th place, 26 points) at the Red Bull Arena. Bundesliga match on May 9, 2026, 3:30 PM. RB Leipzig aims to secure its Champions League spot, while St. Pauli fights for Bundesliga survival.
近期状态
RB Leipzig is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games (WWWWL). Their last match resulted in a loss against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. St. Pauli is going through a difficult period with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches (DLDLL), including two consecutive losses recently. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
统计数据
RB Leipzig scores an average of 1.97 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals per game this season. At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. St. Pauli averages 0.84 goals scored and 1.72 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, St. Pauli concedes an average of 2.08 goals per game. The Red Bull Arena sees an average of 3.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 matches.
历史交锋
In 4 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig secured 2 wins, St. Pauli 0, and there were 2 draws. RB Leipzig scored a total of 7 goals, while St. Pauli scored 3. The last encounter on January 27, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw.
关键球员
For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner (13 goals, 8 assists), Yan Diomande (12 goals, 7 assists), and Rômulo (9 goals, 5 assists) have been outstanding this season. Not nominated for RB Leipzig are Antonio Nusa (4 goals/4 assists), Nicolas Seiwald (0 goals/2 assists), and Max Finkgräfe (1 goal/1 assist). For St. Pauli, Andréas Hountondji (4 goals, 0 assists), Martijn Kaars (3 goals, 1 assist), and Joel Chima Fujita (1 goal, 3 assists) are key players. For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani (5 goals/3 assists), Mathias Pereira Lage (2 goals/2 assists), and Hauke Wahl (2 goals/1 assist) are not in the lineup, accounting for 79% of the usual starting XI's goal threat.
门将
Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig has an average rating of 6.79 in 11 season appearances. RB Leipzig has kept 11 clean sheets this season. For St. Pauli, Nikola Vasilj has an average rating of 6.82 in 32 season appearances. St. Pauli has achieved 5 clean sheets this season.
影响因素
RB Leipzig holds a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per home game while conceding only 1.0. The Red Bull Arena is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.