Friendly International

England - Japan

03/31/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
England
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Japan
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
ENGJAP

England

小样本 (1场) - 均值回归
+0.64
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第19位, 相差15位)
+0.11
全员可用

Japan

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.35倍)
-0.93
小样本 (1场) - 均值回归
+0.74
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.36
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第4位, 相差15位)
-0.18
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.16
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.16
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.66
+0.66
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

50%

平局

28%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

50%

非平局

72%

双方进球

53%

47%

关键因素
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees England as the winner with a 50% probability
  • Form: Japan is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches, showing a positive offensive trend
  • Tactics: England is possession-dominant (60% possession) according to the analysis, while Japan is offensively strong (averaging 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games)
风险因素
  • Japan had a shorter recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
  • Season data for Japan is incomplete, limiting the analysis
  • There is no head-to-head data available between the two teams
概述

England hosts Japan at Wembley Stadium for a Friendly International match on March 31, 2026, 7:45 PM. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 50% probability. A draw is calculated at 28% and an away win at 22%. The model expects 1.62 goals for England and 1.01 goals for Japan.

近期状态

England's current form across all competitions is LWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 3 matches. Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against Uruguay. Prior to that, they secured a 3-0 win against Wales and suffered a 1-3 loss against Senegal.

Japan shows stronger form with DWWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Japan has achieved 4 consecutive wins recently. Their last match was a 1-0 victory against Scotland. This was preceded by wins against Bolivia (3-0), Ghana (2-0), and Brazil (3-2), as well as a 2-2 draw against Paraguay.

统计数据

England's statistics from a limited dataset of one game show 1 goal scored (average 1.0) and 1 goal conceded (average 1.0). They had 0 clean sheets, both teams scored in one game, and no game had over 2.5 goals. Complete season statistics are not available for Japan.

Wembley Stadium has seen an average of 2.5 total goals per game in 2 matches. Both teams scored in 50% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 50% of the games.

历史交锋

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between England and Japan.

关键球员

For England, key players could include Ben White with 1 season goal and 1 goal in his last 5 games with a rising form trend. Anthony Gordon has scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances. Elliot Anderson recorded 1 goal in his last 5 games.

For Japan, Ayase Ueda is an important attacker with 4 goals in his last 5 games, and Junya Ito has scored 2 goals in his last 4 games. Keito Nakamura has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches.

门将

England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has recorded 0 goals and 0 assists in 360 minutes over his last 4 games. England has not kept a clean sheet in their 1 season match. For Japan, goalkeeper Zion Suzuki has registered 0 goals and 0 assists in 270 minutes over his last 3 games. Data on clean sheets for Japan is incomplete.

影响因素

England's home record shows 1 home goal scored and 1 home goal conceded in one home game. Wembley Stadium has seen an average of 2.5 total goals per game in 2 matches. Both teams scored in 50% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 50% of the games.

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