Friendly International

Mexico - Australia

05/31/2026, 02:00 AM

1 : 0
预期进球
Mexico
1.7
Total xG
3.1
Australia
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
MEXAUS

Mexico

防守实力 (场均失0.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-1.21
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
状态上升 (2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.14
排名优势 (第14位 vs 第25位, 相差11位)
+0.09
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.06
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.01
Armando González未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Jesús Gallardo未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Brian Gutiérrez未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
47%进球产出缺失 (仅50%可用)

Australia

小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
+1.35
防守实力 (场均失0.6球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.53
排名劣势 (第25位 vs 第14位, 相差11位)
-0.17
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

26%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

74%

双方进球

64%

36%

关键因素
  • Critical Squad Gap: Mexico has only 50% of their usual starting XI goal threat available without Armando González, Jesús Gallardo, and Brian Gutiérrez
  • Mexico's Strong Home Record: With 1.40 goals scored and only 0.20 goals conceded in home games, Mexico is tough to beat at home
  • Mexico's Current Form: The team is unbeaten in 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
风险因素
  • Limited Data Availability: Historical head-to-head matches are missing, affecting predictability
  • Untested Away Performance: Australia has not played any away games this season
  • Missing xG Data: 3 out of 5 xG data points for Australia's recent games are missing, limiting efficiency analysis
概述

Mexico hosts Australia in a Friendly International at the Rose Bowl on May 31, 2026, 3:00 AM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 44% probability

A draw is calculated at 26% and an away win at 30%

The model expects 1.73 goals for Mexico and 1.41 goals for Australia

近期状态

Mexico shows good form with W W D D W (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last 5 games

Their last win was a 2-0 against Ghana

Australia has mixed form with L L L W W (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses) in their last 5 matches

Their last two games were won 5-1 against Curacao and 1-0 against Cameroon

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Mexico scored an average of 1.50 goals and conceded only 0.17 goals per game in 6 matches

The team kept 5 clean sheets and scored 1.40 goals while conceding 0.20 goals in 5 home games

Australia has a goal average of 3.00 and conceded 0.50 goals per game in 2 matches

Australia kept 1 clean sheet

The mathematical analysis predicts a 64% probability for both teams to score

The model calculates a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match

历史交锋

No head-to-head matches between Mexico and Australia are available in the provided dataset

关键球员

For Mexico, Guillermo Martínez Ayala is currently in rising form with 4 goals in the last 5 games

Alexis Vega contributed 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and shows rising form

Mateo Chávez scored one goal in his last 3 appearances and his form is rising

For Australia, Jacob Italiano showed rising form in 4 of the last 5 games with 3 goals

Jordan Bos has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season

Mohamed Touré scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

门将

Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel appeared in 6 season games and kept 5 clean sheets

Australia's goalkeeper Mathew Ryan played 2 season games and kept a clean sheet in 1 match

影响因素

Mexico shows a strong home average of 1.40 goals scored and only 0.20 goals conceded

Data regarding venue and weather influences is limited

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