Friendly International

Mexico - Serbia

06/05/2026, 02:00 AM

5 : 1
预期进球
Mexico
2.1
Total xG
2.8
Serbia
0.7
最可能的比分

2:0

14%

1:1

10%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

7%
xG 分解
MEXSER

Mexico

防守实力 (场均失0.4球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-1.36
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
-0.36
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第14位 vs 第34位, 相差20位)
+0.15
状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.12
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.00
全员可用

Serbia

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.86
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.60
防守不足 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.14
排名劣势 (第34位 vs 第14位, 相差20位)
-0.12
100%进球产出缺失 (仅0%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.33
+0.33
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

69%

平局

21%

客胜

10%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

双重机会

主胜或平局

90%

客胜或平局

31%

非平局

79%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Favorites: Mexico has a high win probability of 69% according to mathematical analysis
  • Critical absences: Serbia's starting XI is severely weakened, with only 0% of usual strength available
  • Form difference: Mexico is unbeaten in 5 matches, while Serbia has suffered 2 losses in their last 3 games
风险因素
  • Serbia's defensive vulnerability: Averaging 2.33 goals conceded per game this season
  • Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches available
概述

Mexico will host Serbia in a Friendly International match on June 5, 2026, at 4:00 AM CEST, at Estadio Nemesio Díez. The mathematical analysis places Mexico as the favorite, with a 69% probability of winning. The model predicts 2.11 expected goals for Mexico and 0.68 for Serbia.

近期状态

Mexico is in good form with a WDDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) record from 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. They recently secured 1-0 and 2-0 victories against Australia and Ghana, respectively. Serbia, on the other hand, shows a LWL form with 1 win and 2 losses in their last 3 games. Their most recent result was a 0-3 loss against Cape Verde Islands.

统计数据

Mexico has scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded only 0.17 goals in their 6 home games this season. Serbia has played 0 away games this season. Across all 3 season matches, Serbia has averaged 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded. At Estadio Nemesio Díez, the last 5 matches saw an average of 2.8 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 games (80%). Over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games (40%).

历史交锋

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Mexico and Serbia.

关键球员

For Mexico, key players include Brian Gutiérrez with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 of 5 games and rising form, Julián Quiñones with 5 goals in 4 of 5 games, and Johan Vásquez with 2 goals in 3 of 5 games. For Serbia, Nikola Stulic stands out with 1 goal in 2 games played in only 18 minutes. Strahinja Erakovic shows a rising form trend, and Aleksandar Stanković is in stable form.

门将

Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has recorded 6 clean sheets this season. Serbia's goalkeeper Filip Stanković has not kept any clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Estadio Nemesio Díez typically sees an average of 2.8 goals per match. 80% of the last 5 games at this venue featured both teams scoring. Mexico benefits from a strong home advantage, averaging 1.33 goals scored and only 0.17 goals conceded in home matches.

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