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Chicago Fire – New York City2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Chicago Fire
1.62
总 xG
2.76
New York City
1.14
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Chicago Fire | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍) | −0.40 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.20 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.9 赛季平均) | −0.20 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.17 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | −0.10 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.01 | |
| Luighi替补席 (4球, 0助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.6球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Prediction edge: The model calculates a 47% home win probability for Chicago Fire with 1.62 expected goals
- Tactical advantage: Chicago Fire averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to New York City's 3.4
- Offensive momentum: Chicago Fire enter on a 2-game winning streak powered by Maren Haile-Selassie (9 goals) and Robert Lewandowski (6 goals)
风险
- Rest disadvantage: Chicago Fire enter with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Historical head-to-head: New York City remain unbeaten in their last 5 direct encounters (3 wins, 2 draws)
全部概率
赛果
Chicago Fire47%
平局28%
New York City25%
进球
大于 1.578%
小于 1.522%
大于 2.552%
小于 2.548%
大于 3.530%
小于 3.570%
双重机会
Chicago Fire或平局75%
New York City或平局53%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是56%
否44%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
首发阵容
Chicago Fire 4-4-2 · New York City 4-2-3-1
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 3 J. Elliott
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 19 J. Bamba
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 17 H. Wolf
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
替补
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 32 N. Allen
- 29 D. Poręba
- 15 A. Gutman
- 18 J. Gomez
- 9 B. Traore
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 3 M. Miazga
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
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