比赛报告 →
Portland Timbers – Austin1 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Portland Timbers
1.92
总 xG
2.87
Austin
0.96
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Portland Timbers | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.58倍) | −0.64 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.64 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Kelsy替补席 (9球, 2助攻) | ||
| Brandon Bye未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻) | ||
| 30%进球产出缺失 (仅78%可用) | ||
| Myrto Uzuni替补席 (6球, 1助攻) | ||
| Brendan Hines-Ike替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 33%进球产出缺失 (仅95%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.3球) |
关键因素
- Attacking advantage against vulnerable defense: Portland's home offense (1.77 goals average) meets Austin's weak away defense which concedes an average of 3.0 goals per game
- Strong home record on artificial turf: Portland has already recorded 6 wins and only 2 losses on this surface this season
- Statistical advantage for the hosts: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 59% for Portland
风险
- Austin's stalling goal production: The visitors score an average of only 0.8 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.3
- Portland's defensive vulnerability: The home side concedes an average of 1.76 goals per game this season
- Missing offensive power: Portland is without key goalscorer Kevin Kelsy (9 goals, 2 assists) who is not selected
全部概率
赛果
Portland Timbers58%
平局25%
Austin17%
进球
大于 1.579%
小于 1.521%
大于 2.555%
小于 2.545%
大于 3.532%
小于 3.568%
双重机会
Portland Timbers或平局83%
Austin或平局42%
非平局75%
双方均进球
是54%
否46%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Portland Timbers 4-3-3 · Austin 3-4-2-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 15 E. Miller
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 17 C. Bassett
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 88 G. Guerra
- 99 K. Velde
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 3 M. Desler
- 15 J. Bell
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
替补
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 16 S. Jura
- 23 I. Smith
- 73 E. Izoita
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 18 Z. McGraw
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 12 D. Las
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 21 C. Ramírez
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