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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - New York RB

07/22/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Philadelphia Union
1.4
Total xG
2.8
New York RB
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
xG 分解
PUNYR

Philadelphia Union

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.62倍)
-0.65
防守实力 (场均失2.3球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
+0.40
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.31
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.26
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第5位, 相差10位)
-0.16
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.13
Ben Bender替补席 (1球, 1助攻)

New York RB

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.13
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第15位, 相差10位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.04

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.79
+0.79
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

29%

客胜

34%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

66%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

71%

双方进球

58%

42%

关键因素
  • Form Gap: Philadelphia Union is winless in their last 5 games, while New York RB won 3 of their last 5 matches
  • Tactical Offensive Edge: Philadelphia Union averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to New York RB's 3.8
  • Defensive Vulnerability: Philadelphia concedes an average of 2.0 goals per home game, matching New York RB's solid away scoring average of 1.71
风险因素
  • Away Defensive Weakness: New York RB concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away match
  • Low-Scoring Venue: Subaru Park has seen a very low average of only 1.2 goals per game in recent matches
概述

Philadelphia Union host New York Red Bulls at Subaru Park

Major League Soccer match on July 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

The home side is in 15th place with 7 points, while the visitors sit 5th with 22 points

The mathematical model predicts a close match with a 37% chance for a home win and 35% for an away win

近期状态

Philadelphia Union's recent form is DLLDL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The home team has 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

New York RB enters the match with a strong LWWDW form

统计数据

Philadelphia Union scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game

At home, they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 goals conceded

New York RB scores an average of 1.71 goals away from home but concedes 2.57

Both sides struggle defensively, each conceding over 2.0 goals per match on average

历史交锋

Out of the last 4 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 2, New York RB won 1, and 1 ended in a draw

The goal difference is 4:1 in favor of the home team

The last encounter on August 16, 2025, ended in a 1-0 win for New York RB

Philadelphia Union holds the historical upper hand in this matchup

关键球员

Milan Iloski has scored 7 goals this season for Philadelphia Union

Cavan Sullivan contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in midfield for the hosts

Bruno Damiani recorded 1 goal and 1 assist for the home team

Julian Hall leads the visitors with 9 goals and 3 assists

Jorge Ruvalcaba has been clinical for the Red Bulls with 7 goals

Cade Cowell has provided 4 assists and scored 1 goal this season

门将

Andre Blake has made 14 appearances for Philadelphia Union with 2 clean sheets

Ethan Horvath has played 15 matches for New York RB, recording 1 clean sheet

Both goalkeepers have similar season ratings of 6.70 and 6.72 respectively

影响因素

Matches at Subaru Park average just 1.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 40% of the last 5 games at this venue

The match will be played on natural grass

Philadelphia has struggled at home, conceding 6 goals in 3 matches despite home advantage

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