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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Portland Timbers

05/17/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Inter Miami
2.1
Total xG
3.3
Portland Timbers
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
IMPT

Inter Miami

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.22倍)
+0.38
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.28
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3球)
+0.13
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第12位, 相差10位)
+0.10
防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
+0.09
全员可用

Portland Timbers

排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第2位, 相差10位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.07
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.07
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.8球)
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.76
+0.76
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

57%

平局

23%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

43%

非平局

77%

双方进球

63%

37%

关键因素
  • Inter Miami's offensive strength, demonstrated by an average of 2.67 home goals and 3.0 goals in their last 5 matches
  • Portland's defensive vulnerability away, with an average of 3.0 goals conceded per away game
  • The general expectation of a high-scoring game, based on the pipeline analysis with a 64% probability for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score
风险因素
  • The high number of goals conceded by Inter Miami at home (an average of 3.0 per game)
  • The defensive weakness of Portland Timbers in away games, also conceding an average of 3.0 goals
概述

Inter Miami (2nd place, 25 points) host Portland Timbers (12th place, 14 points) in Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer match on May 17, 2026, 11:00 PM

Inter Miami is in the upper half of the table, while Portland Timbers are in the lower midfield

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 57% probability

近期状态

Inter Miami's form is WDLWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) across all competitions

The team has won its last two matches

Inter Miami's last 5 results are 5-3 against Cincinnati, 4-2 against Toronto, 3-4 against Orlando City, 1-1 against New England, and 2-0 against Real Salt Lake

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Portland Timbers' form is LWLWD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) across all competitions

The last match ended in a draw

Portland Timbers' last 5 results are 2-2 against CF Montréal, 6-0 against Sporting KC, 0-2 against Real Salt Lake, 2-1 against San Diego, and 0-2 against Minnesota United

统计数据

Inter Miami scores an average of 2.38 goals per game and concedes 1.85 goals

At home, Inter Miami scores an average of 2.67 goals and concedes 3.0 goals

Both teams scored in 10 of Inter Miami's matches, and 10 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.75 goals per game and concedes 1.92 goals

Away, Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.6 goals and concedes 3.0 goals

Both teams scored in 8 of Portland Timbers' matches, and 8 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Both teams' away defense appears vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.0 goals

历史交锋

No previous head-to-head meetings found between Inter Miami and Portland Timbers

关键球员

Inter Miami's key players include Lionel Messi, Rodrigo De Paul, and Luis Suárez

Lionel Messi (Attacker) scored 12 season goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 8.33, and his form is rising

Rodrigo De Paul (Midfielder) scored 3 season goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.72, and his form is rising

Luis Suárez (Attacker) scored 3 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.05, and his form is rising

For Portland Timbers, key players are Cole Bassett, Kevin Kelsy, and Kristoffer Velde

Cole Bassett (Midfielder) scored 2 season goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 7.38, and his form is stable

Kevin Kelsy (Attacker) scored 5 season goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 7.01, and his form is rising

Kristoffer Velde (Attacker) scored 4 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.04, and his form is stable

门将

Inter Miami's goalkeeper is Dayne St. Clair

Dayne St. Clair has achieved 0 clean sheets at home

His season average rating is 6.68, while his last 5 games show an average rating of 6.97, indicating rising form

Portland Timbers' goalkeeper is James Pantemis

James Pantemis has achieved 0 clean sheets away

His season average rating is 7.21, while his last 5 games show an average rating of 7.30, indicating stable form

Both teams have not achieved any clean sheets in their respective home/away games

影响因素

Inter Miami scores an average of 2.67 goals at home but also concedes 3.0 goals

Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.6 goals away but also concedes 3.0 goals

These values suggest an offensively oriented match with defensive weaknesses on both sides

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