比赛报告 →
Houston Dynamo – SJ Earthquakes0 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Houston Dynamo
1.25
总 xG
2.30
SJ Earthquakes
1.06
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Houston Dynamo | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.54倍) | −0.89 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.8球) | −0.59 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.26 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.9 赛季平均) | −0.26 | |
| 最近5场中4场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.01 | |
| Agustín Bouzat替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Preston Judd替补席 (11球, 3助攻) | ||
| Timo Werner未进大名单 (6球, 4助攻) | ||
| Nick Fernandez替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| 33%进球产出缺失 (仅78%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.9球) |
关键因素
- Form discrepancy: Houston Dynamo recorded 4 wins in 5 games compared to 4 losses for the visitors
- Weakened guest attack: San Jose is missing key forwards Preston Judd and Timo Werner, leaving only 78% of active goals available
- Strong home defense: Houston concedes an average of just 0.78 goals per match at home
风险
- Historical setback: The last direct encounter in August 2025 ended in a 1-2 home defeat for Houston
- Low-scoring arena trend: The venue recently averaged a low of just 1.6 total goals per match
- Low offensive volume: Houston Dynamo recently averaged only 4.2 shots on target per match
全部概率
赛果
Houston Dynamo39%
平局32%
SJ Earthquakes30%
进球
大于 1.569%
小于 1.531%
大于 2.541%
小于 2.560%
大于 3.520%
小于 3.580%
双重机会
Houston Dynamo或平局70%
SJ Earthquakes或平局61%
非平局68%
双方均进球
是48%
否52%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
首发阵容
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1 · SJ Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 34 A. Resch
- 21 F. Negri
- 8 J. McGlynn
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 11 L. Ennali
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 3 P. Marie
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 23 E. Löwen
- 7 O. Bouda
替补
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 28 E. Sviatchenko
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 13 S. Vines
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 6 I. Harkes
- 16 J. Skahan
- 19 P. Judd
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 31 F. Montali
- 25 M. Floriani
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 9 L. Jovanovic
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