比赛报告 →
Colorado Rapids – Minnesota United2 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Colorado Rapids
2.04
总 xG
3.20
Minnesota United
1.16
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Colorado Rapids | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.56 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3球) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.27倍) | −0.30 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球) | −0.13 | |
| 排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第8位, 相差6位) | −0.07 | |
| 排名优势 (第8位 vs 第14位, 相差6位) | +0.06 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | +0.05 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.01 | |
| Reggie Cannon替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| Josh Atencio替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Joaquín Pereyra未进大名单 (3球, 10助攻) | ||
| Anthony Markanich Jr.未进大名单 (8球, 3助攻) | ||
| Kyle Duncan未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻) | ||
| 20%进球产出缺失 (仅74%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均2球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Colorado Rapids host a vulnerable away defense (1.94 goals conceded per away game)
- Pipeline model prediction: The statistical model calculates a 56% home win probability with 2.04 expected goals for the Rapids
- Form gap: Colorado lost only 1 of their last 5 matches while Minnesota failed to win any of their past 5 games
风险
- Squad impact: Joaquín Pereyra, Anthony Markanich Jr., and Kyle Duncan are not starting, leaving only 74% of usual goal threat active
- Defensive concern for Minnesota: Minnesota United conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match over their last 5 games
- Offensive output: Minnesota United averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
全部概率
赛果
Colorado Rapids56%
平局24%
Minnesota United20%
进球
大于 1.584%
小于 1.516%
大于 2.562%
小于 2.538%
大于 3.540%
小于 3.560%
双重机会
Colorado Rapids或平局80%
Minnesota United或平局44%
非平局76%
双方均进球
是61%
否39%
最可能的比分
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
2:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1 · Minnesota United 4-4-2
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 77 D. Yapi
- 32 D. Phillip
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 22 M. Caldeira
替补
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 11 I. Sadiq
- 4 R. Cannon
- 12 J. Atencio
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 99 J. Travis
- 33 K. Thompson
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 3 K. Duncan
- 25 N. Triantis
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 27 D. Taylor
- 5 N. Romero
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 94 K. Rizvanovich
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