比赛报告 →
Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Philadelphia Union
2.37
总 xG
3.31
Real Salt Lake
0.94
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Philadelphia Union | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.56倍) | +0.85 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.61倍) | −0.72 | |
| 最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均4球) | +0.55 | |
| 状态上升 (4 vs 2.2 赛季平均) | +0.55 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.20 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均) | −0.20 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.8球) | −0.08 | |
| Juan Manuel Sanabria替补席 (1球, 4助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.5球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Philadelphia currently score more frequently (4.0 goals) than their season average against a vulnerable away defense
- Form gap: Philadelphia won 5 straight matches while Real Salt Lake lost 4 of their last 5
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a high win probability of 68% for the home team
风险
- Real Salt Lake concede an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Key absence: D. Luna is out injured for Real Salt Lake (5 goals, 3 assists this season)
全部概率
赛果
Philadelphia Union68%
平局20%
Real Salt Lake12%
进球
大于 1.585%
小于 1.515%
大于 2.564%
小于 2.536%
大于 3.542%
小于 3.558%
双重机会
Philadelphia Union或平局88%
Real Salt Lake或平局32%
非平局80%
双方均进球
是56%
否44%
最可能的比分
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
首发阵容
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 29 S. Junqua
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
替补
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 66 F. Sundstrom
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 23 C. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 19 A. Piol
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 34 L. Moisa
- 98 A. Katranis
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
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