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Major League Soccer

San Diego - Cincinnati

05/17/2026, 01:30 AM

3 : 3
预期进球
San Diego
1.8
Total xG
3.3
Cincinnati
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
SDCIN

San Diego

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.04
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
-0.01
全员可用

Cincinnati

最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.22
状态上升 (2.8 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
+0.22
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.02
Bryan Ramírez替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.77
+0.77
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

25%

客胜

29%

进球数

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

双重机会

主胜或平局

71%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

75%

双方进球

65%

35%

关键因素
  • Mathematical Analysis: The model predicts a 46% home win probability for San Diego with 1.83 expected home goals
  • Defensive Strength vs. Weakness: San Diego concedes only 0.89 goals at home, while Cincinnati allows a high 3.33 goals per away game
  • Attacking Power: Cincinnati's current form shows a higher goal average of 2.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.1 goals
风险因素
  • Short Rest: San Diego had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Inconsistent Form: San Diego's overall form (LLDDW) before their last win indicates some inconsistency
  • High Shots on Target: Cincinnati averaged 4.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
概述

San Diego (9th place, 16 points) host Cincinnati (8th place, 16 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 17, 2026, 1:30 AM. Both teams are level on points in the table, competing for a better position.

近期状态

San Diego's form across all competitions is LLDDW, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match resulted in a win. Cincinnati's form is DWWDL, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match resulted in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

San Diego scores an average of 1.92 goals per game and concedes 1.54 goals. At home, they average 2.00 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded. They have 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 matches. Cincinnati scores an average of 2.08 goals per game and concedes 2.46 goals. Away from home, they average 2.17 goals scored and a high 3.33 goals conceded. They have 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 9 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches. San Diego consistently scores (~1.9 goals per game). Cincinnati is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (2.1).

历史交锋

There are no direct head-to-head matches between San Diego and Cincinnati available in the dataset.

关键球员

San Diego can rely on Marcus Ingvartsen (9 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.25, stable), who scored 4 goals in the last 5 games. Anders Dreyer (6 goals, 5 assists, Avg Rating 7.71, stable) contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances. Onni Valakari (3 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 7.14, stable) provided 2 assists in his last 5 games. For Cincinnati, Kévin Denkey (8 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.26, rising) is a key force with 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches. Evander (7 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 7.61, rising) scored 6 goals in his last 5 games. Pavel Bucha (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 6.88, stable) was involved in 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 matches. Bryan Ramírez (0G/2A) is not nominated for Cincinnati.

门将

Duran Ferree is San Diego's goalkeeper, having played 12 games with an average rating of 6.92. He recorded 4 clean sheets, 3 of which were in home games. Roman Celentano is Cincinnati's goalkeeper, with 11 appearances and an average rating of 6.89. He has 2 clean sheets but none in away games.

影响因素

San Diego demonstrates strong home performance, averaging 2.00 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Cincinnati, on the other hand, concedes a high average of 3.33 goals per away game.

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