比赛报告 →
Minnesota United – Orlando City3 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Minnesota United
1.90
总 xG
3.06
Orlando City
1.16
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Minnesota United | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失2.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +1.07 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.8球) | −0.30 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍) | +0.18 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.17 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.07 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | +0.05 | |
| Tomás Chancalay替补席 (2球, 4助攻) | ||
| Adrián Marín未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| Tiago替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 27%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.6球) |
关键因素
- Vulnerable away defense: Orlando City concedes an average of 3.78 goals per match when playing on the road
- Improving attacking form: Minnesota United is scoring 2.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.4
- Strong mathematical prediction: The model projects a home win with a 53% probability and 1.90 expected home goals
风险
- Potent away attack: Orlando City scores a respectable average of 1.67 goals per away match
- Squad depth issues for Orlando: Missing Adrián Marín and Tiago reduces the available starting lineup strength to 87%
全部概率
赛果
Minnesota United53%
平局25%
Orlando City22%
进球
大于 1.582%
小于 1.518%
大于 2.559%
小于 2.541%
大于 3.537%
小于 3.563%
双重机会
Minnesota United或平局78%
Orlando City或平局47%
非平局75%
双方均进球
是60%
否40%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Minnesota United 3-4-1-2 · Orlando City 4-4-2
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 3 K. Duncan
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 9 K. Yeboah
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 22 J. Ellis
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 9 D. Dike
- 7 A. Griezmann
替补
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 2 D. Padelford
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 25 N. Triantis
- 29 M. Dieng
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 14 T. Spicer
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 23 H. Sarajian
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