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Major League Soccer

Cincinnati - SJ Earthquakes

08/01/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 2
预期进球
Cincinnati
2.1
Total xG
3.6
SJ Earthquakes
1.6
最可能的比分

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
xG 分解
CINSE

Cincinnati

防守不足 (场均失2.5球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
+0.58
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.3倍)
+0.34
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3.4球)
+0.30
状态上升 (3.4 vs 2.4 赛季平均)
+0.30
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.18
Gerardo Valenzuela未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)

SJ Earthquakes

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.14
状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.14
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.08
Jack Skahan替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Jamar Ricketts替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.73
+0.73
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

48%

平局

24%

客胜

29%

进球数

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

双重机会

主胜或平局

71%

客胜或平局

52%

非平局

76%

双方进球

是

70%

否

30%

关键因素
  • Offensive trend: Cincinnati is currently scoring more (3.4 goals) than their season average (2.41) while San Jose's attack is stalling (1.6 recently)
  • Tactical activity: Cincinnati averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to San Jose's 5.6
  • Model prediction: Home win is calculated at 48% probability with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals
风险因素
  • Defensive weakness: Cincinnati concedes a high average of 2.47 goals per match this season
  • Visitor defensive decline: SJ Earthquakes' defensive average recently worsened to 2.4 goals conceded per game
  • Suspended defender: Key center-back Matt Miazga is missing due to suspension in Cincinnati's defense
概述

Cincinnati (7th place, 23 points) hosts SJ Earthquakes (3rd place, 33 points)

Major League Soccer match on August 1, 2026, 11:30 PM

A crucial clash for playoff positions

近期状态

Cincinnati form: LDWWL (L = Loss, D = Draw, W = Win)

Last result was a 1-2 loss against Columbus Crew

SJ Earthquakes form: LLWLD

Last result was a 1-1 draw against LA Galaxy

统计数据

Cincinnati averages 2.41 goals scored and 2.47 goals conceded per match

At home their offensive average is 2.4 goals per game

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.06 goals while conceding 1.18

Away from home the visitors concede only 1.0 goal on average

历史交锋

Only 1 head-to-head match in the last two years

Cincinnati won the last encounter 4-2 on June 16, 2024

关键球员

Evander leads the midfield with 10 goals and 8 assists for the home team

Kévin Denkey has contributed 11 goals and 2 assists

For the visitors, Preston Judd has scored 11 goals, Timo Werner has 4 goals, and Ousseni Bouda has scored 5 goals

门将

Roman Celentano has recorded 2 clean sheets for Cincinnati

SJ Earthquakes achieved 5 clean sheets in total, with Angus Gunn making 2 appearances this season

影响因素

TQL Stadium averages a very high 6.2 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at Cincinnati's home venue

The game will be played on grass

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