比赛报告 →
Sporting KC – Vancouver Whitecaps0 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Sporting KC
0.99
总 xG
2.73
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.74
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Sporting KC | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.71倍) | −1.03 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.41 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.21倍) | +0.34 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | −0.23 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球) | −0.17 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.4 vs 1 赛季平均) | −0.17 | |
| 排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第1位, 相差14位) | −0.16 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 排名优势 (第1位 vs 第15位, 相差14位) | +0.11 | |
| 小样本 (9场) - 均值回归 | −0.07 | |
| Dejan Joveljić替补席 (8球, 1助攻) | ||
| Jake Davis未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 38%进球产出缺失 (仅70%可用) | ||
| Emmanuel Sabbi替补席 (3球, 3助攻) | ||
| Cheikh Sabaly替补席 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| Jeevan Badwal替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1球) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.7球 vs 总体2.4球) |
关键因素
- Historical dominance: Vancouver won all of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 12:2
- Tactical superiority: Vancouver averaged 5.4 shots on target per match with 62.4% possession in recent games
- Defensive vulnerability: Sporting KC concedes an average of 2.43 goals per match and has kept 0 clean sheets this season
风险
- Offensive struggles for the hosts: Sporting KC recently played counter-oriented football with an average of only 2.4 shots on target per match
- Away defense variance: Vancouver concedes an average of 1.5 goals on the road compared to just 0.5 in home games
全部概率
赛果
Sporting KC20%
平局27%
Vancouver Whitecaps54%
进球
大于 1.577%
小于 1.523%
大于 2.551%
小于 2.549%
大于 3.529%
小于 3.571%
双重机会
Sporting KC或平局46%
Vancouver Whitecaps或平局80%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
6%
首发阵容
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 3 M. Castillo Mosquera
- 5 O. Blorian
- 18 E. Karic
- 7 O. Capemba
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 14 C. Harris
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 19 T. Calheira
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 25 R. Gauld
- 13 T. Müller
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 24 B. White
替补
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 15 J. Miller
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 28 W. Meyer
- 57 D. Borges da Silva
- 99 J. Reid
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 59 J. Badwal
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 26 J. Ngando Mbende
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 3 S. Adekugbe
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