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Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire - Cincinnati

05/03/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 3
预期进球
Chicago Fire
2.0
Total xG
3.1
Cincinnati
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

1:2

6%
xG 分解
CFCIN

Chicago Fire

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均2球)
-0.96
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.08
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第9位, 相差6位)
+0.06
小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.01
Jonathan Bamba替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Leonardo Barroso未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

Cincinnati

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.24
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.15
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
+0.15
排名劣势 (第9位 vs 第3位, 相差6位)
-0.07
Ender Echenique替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
Tom Barlow替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.9球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

55%

平局

24%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

45%

非平局

76%

双方进球

60%

40%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 55% home win probability for Chicago Fire with 1.98 expected goals
  • Chicago Fire shows strong home performance with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home game
  • Chicago Fire's positive goal-scoring trend (2.4 goals per game recently) meets Cincinnati's extremely vulnerable away defense (average 4.0 goals conceded per away game)
风险因素
  • Cincinnati concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away game
  • The last head-to-head match ended in a 3-3 draw
  • Cincinnati scores an average of 2.0 goals per away game, indicating offensive strength
概述

Chicago Fire (3rd place, 17 points) hosts Cincinnati (9th place, 12 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 3, 2026, 2:30 AM. Chicago Fire aims to consolidate their top table position, while Cincinnati seeks to keep pace with the playoff spots.

近期状态

Chicago Fire is in excellent form, recording 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five games (WWWDW). Their last match was a 5-0 victory. Cincinnati shows mixed form with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches (LDDDW). Their most recent game was a 2-0 win. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Chicago Fire has scored an average of 1.89 goals and conceded 0.89 goals per game this season. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game, leading to 4 home clean sheets. Cincinnati has scored an average of 1.90 goals per game but conceded 2.30 goals. Their away defense is significantly more vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per game, with no away clean sheets. For Chicago Fire, over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 out of 9 games, and both teams scored in 4 games. For Cincinnati, over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 out of 10 games, and both teams scored in 6 games.

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, Chicago Fire has 1 win, Cincinnati has 3 wins, and there has been 1 draw. The goal difference is 8:10 in favor of Cincinnati. The last encounter on April 18, 2026, ended in a 3-3 draw. Historical matchups have recently been dominated by Cincinnati.

关键球员

For Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers (8 goals, Avg. 7.94 rating, 6 goals in last 5 games), Philip Zinckernagel (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.21 rating, rising form), and Maren Haile-Selassie (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.99 rating) are key offensive players. Jonathan Bamba (2 goals, 2 assists) and Leonardo Barroso (0 goals, 2 assists) are not in the squad.

For Cincinnati, Kévin Denkey (6 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.22 rating, rising form), Evander (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.45 rating, rising form), and Pavel Bucha (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg. 6.90 rating) are among the top performers. Ender Echenique (1 goal, 3 assists) and Tom Barlow (2 goals, 0 assists) were not fielded.

门将

In goal for Chicago Fire is Chris Brady, who achieved an average rating of 7.06 in 9 season appearances and significantly contributed to the team's 5 clean sheets. For Cincinnati, Roman Celentano is the goalkeeper, having played in 8 season games, earning an average rating of 6.88, and helping his team to 2 clean sheets.

影响因素

Chicago Fire benefits from a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 1.83 home goals and conceding only 0.33 home goals per game. Cincinnati, on the other hand, shows a very vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game.

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