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Major League Soccer

Toronto - Atlanta United

04/25/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Toronto
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Atlanta United
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
TORAU

Toronto

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.51
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.19
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
+0.19
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.18
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第15位, 相差9位)
+0.07
防守实力 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均2球)
-0.07
Richie Laryea替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)

Atlanta United

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍)
-0.48
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.35
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.14
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.11
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第6位, 相差9位)
-0.10
Emmanuel Latte Lath替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Miguel Almirón未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
20%进球产出缺失 (仅58%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.74
+0.74
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

27%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

73%

双方进球

55%

46%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Toronto with 51%
  • Toronto is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWDDD), while Atlanta United has lost 4 of their last 5 matches (DLLLL)
  • Toronto is currently scoring more often (Avg. 2.4 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.8 goals), while Atlanta United's goal production is stagnant (Avg. 0.5 goals recently vs. Avg. 0.9 goals season average)
风险因素
  • Only 58% of Atlanta United's usual starting XI strength is available, with Emmanuel Latte Lath and Miguel Almirón missing
  • Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could impact their physical performance
概述

Toronto (6th place, 13 points) host Atlanta United (15th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on April 25, 2026, 7:00 PM

Toronto aims to leverage its good home form and extend its lead in the table

Atlanta United is looking for a way out of its current crisis

近期状态

Toronto's form across all competitions is WWDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws

Their last 3 matches all ended in a draw

Atlanta United's form across all competitions is DLLLL

The team has recorded 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5 games

Atlanta United is on a negative run with 4 consecutive losses

Their last match ended in a loss

统计数据

Toronto's offense averages 1.78 goals per game (Home: 1.86 goals)

Atlanta United's offense averages 0.78 goals per game

Toronto's defense concedes an average of 1.89 goals per game (Home: 1.57 goals)

Atlanta United's defense concedes an average of 1.78 goals per game

In 7 of Toronto's games, both teams scored, compared to 4 for Atlanta United

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 of Toronto's games and 4 of Atlanta United's games

Toronto failed to score in 1 game, Atlanta United in 5 games

Both teams have kept 1 clean sheet each

历史交锋

There have been a total of 4 head-to-head matches between the teams

Both teams secured 1 win each, while 2 matches ended in a draw

Toronto scored 4 goals in these encounters, Atlanta United 3 goals

The last encounter on August 24, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

The head-to-head record is even

关键球员

For Toronto, Dániel Sallói (3 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 6.98), Josh Sargent (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 6.96), and Alonso Coello (0 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.16) are notable

Alonso Coello showed a stable form trend in the last 5 games with 1 assist and an avg rating of 7.29

Josh Sargent recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a stable form trend and avg rating of 7.02

For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk (4 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.20), Stian Gregersen (avg rating 7.00), and Lucas Hoyos (avg rating 6.55) stand out

Aleksey Miranchuk shows a declining form trend in the last 5 games with an avg rating of 6.89

Lucas Hoyos recorded a rising form trend in the last 5 games with an avg rating of 6.75

门将

Toronto's goalkeeper Luka Gavran has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Atlanta United's goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Both teams show similar performance regarding games without conceding a goal

影响因素

Toronto scores an average of 1.86 goals at home and concedes 1.57 goals

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