比赛报告 →
New England – Seattle Sounders0 : 3
模型为何这样判断
New England
1.61
总 xG
2.94
Seattle Sounders
1.33
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | New England | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.24 | |
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.24 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | +0.02 | |
| Dor Turgeman未进大名单 (7球, 8助攻) | ||
| Peyton Miller未进大名单 (7球, 4助攻) | ||
| 34%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用) | ||
| Kalani Kossa-Rienzi替补席 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| 13%进球产出缺失 (仅95%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Strong recent form: Seattle Sounders are scoring more frequently recently (2.2) than their season average (1.4) and remain unbeaten in 5 games
- Home strength on artificial turf: New England occupy 2nd place in the table and conceded just 13 goals in 16 home matches
- Model signal: Calculations estimate a 43% win probability for New England with 1.61 expected home goals
风险
- Squad impact for New England: Dor Turgeman and Peyton Miller are missing, only 69% of typical goal threat available
- Away struggle on artificial turf: Seattle Sounders recorded 5 losses in 10 matches on artificial turf with 12:17 goals
- Defensive concern for host: New England conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match over their last 5 games
全部概率
赛果
New England43%
平局27%
Seattle Sounders30%
进球
大于 1.581%
小于 1.519%
大于 2.556%
小于 2.544%
大于 3.534%
小于 3.566%
双重机会
New England或平局70%
Seattle Sounders或平局57%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是60%
否40%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
最终比分
首发阵容
New England 4-3-3 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 66 J. Wynder
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 14 J. Yueill
- 41 L. Langoni
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 25 P. Miller
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 16 A. Roldan
- 28 Y. Gómez Andrade
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 13 J. Morris
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 90 S. Gomez
- 9 D. Joveljić
替补
- 6 T. Smith
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 12 I. Feingold
- 33 D. Parisian
- 15 C. Baker
- 2 M. Fofana
- 57 J. Mussenden
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
- 67 M. Wells
- 8 C. Clark
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 17 P. Arriola
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 35 A. Lopez
- 37 S. Brunell
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 45 P. Kingston
- 4 R. Sailor
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 81 M. Bronnik
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