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Major League Soccer

Toronto - Charlotte

08/19/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 3
预期进球
Toronto
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Charlotte
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
TORCHA

Toronto

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.5倍)
-0.98
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.22
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第5位, 相差7位)
-0.09
Kobe Franklin替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Jonathan Osorio 未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)

Charlotte

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.42
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.22
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第12位, 相差7位)
+0.04
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.01
Kerwin Vargas未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Harry Toffolo未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
Agyemang Morrison替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.8球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.70
+0.70
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

33%

平局

32%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

68%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Charlotte scores consistently with an average of 1.8 goals per game, while Toronto's attack recently dropped to 1.3
  • Historical dominance with 4 wins for Charlotte from the last 5 head-to-head matches
  • Charlotte averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to only 2.8 for Toronto
风险因素
  • Charlotte concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game this season
  • Toronto has not kept a single clean sheet at home this season
  • Limited recovery time with only 4 days of rest for both teams since their last match
概述

Toronto (12th place, 20 points) host Charlotte (5th place, 28 points) at BMO Field

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 1:30 AM

A clash between the 12th and 5th placed teams in the league

The mathematical model predicts a highly balanced game with a minimal advantage for Charlotte at a 35% win probability compared to 33% for Toronto

近期状态

Toronto shows a recent form of DDLDW

Charlotte enters with a form of WDWLW

The hosts recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Charlotte registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the same period

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Toronto scored an average of 1.37 goals and conceded 1.74 goals per game this season

In home games, Toronto averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded

Charlotte averages 1.68 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

In away games, Charlotte concedes an average of 3.2 goals while scoring 1.8

历史交锋

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

Charlotte dominates the record with 4 wins, while Toronto won only 1 match

The goal difference stands at 10:4 in favor of Charlotte

The last encounter ended in a 3-1 win for Charlotte

关键球员

Dániel Sallói scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists in 19 games

Josh Sargent contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 12 appearances

Alonso Coello shines with an average rating of 7.25

Pep Biel has already scored 10 goals and assisted 5 more for Charlotte

Liel Abada has 2 goals and 3 assists in 13 matches

Ashley Westwood has registered 2 goals and 1 assist in 18 games

门将

Luka Gavran played 19 games for Toronto with an average rating of 6.77

The goalkeeper has not kept a clean sheet at home this season

Kristijan Kahlina played 19 matches for Charlotte, achieving a 7.09 rating

He has kept a total of 3 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match takes place on natural grass at BMO Field

An average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches at this stadium

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches at this venue

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