比赛报告 →
Toronto – CF Montréal2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Toronto
1.61
总 xG
3.01
CF Montréal
1.40
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Toronto | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.05 | |
| Derrick Etienne Jr.替补席 (4球, 1助攻) | ||
| 11%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: CF Montréal concede an average of 3.00 goals per away match
- Historical edge: Toronto are unbeaten in their last 5 head-to-head encounters against CF Montréal (3 wins, 2 draws)
- Prediction model: Mathematical probabilities indicate a 41% home win chance and an 82% likelihood for over 1.5 goals
风险
- Home defensive concern: Toronto have yet to record a clean sheet in home matches this season (0 clean sheets)
- Low scoring trend: CF Montréal averaged just 0.80 goals scored per match in their last 5 outings
- Lineup change: Derrick Etienne Jr. is not included in Toronto's starting lineup
全部概率
赛果
Toronto41%
平局27%
CF Montréal32%
进球
大于 1.582%
小于 1.518%
大于 2.558%
小于 2.542%
大于 3.536%
小于 3.564%
双重机会
Toronto或平局68%
CF Montréal或平局59%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是62%
否38%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
首发阵容
Toronto 4-3-3 · CF Montréal 3-4-2-1
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 15 N. Gomis
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 21 J. Osorio
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 9 J. Sargent
- 20 D. Salloi
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 2 J. Neal
- 5 B. Craig
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 22 V. Loturi
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 9 P. Owusu
替补
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 90 L. Morgan
- 38 J. Gilman
- 27 A. Piedrahita Díaz
- 96 R. Chukwu
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 28 V. Radojević
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 6 S. Piette
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 23 N. Streit
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 41 S. Keita
- 21 F. Herbers
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