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Toronto – Orlando City3 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Toronto
1.54
总 xG
3.22
Orlando City
1.68
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Toronto | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失2.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.94 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.32倍) | +0.39 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.6球) | +0.23 | |
| 状态上升 (2.6 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | +0.23 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.17 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | −0.17 | |
| Derrick Etienne Jr.替补席 (4球, 1助攻) | ||
| Marco Pašalić未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Prediction signal: The mathematical model calculates a 40% win probability for Orlando City
- Attacking form: Orlando City scored more goals recently (2.6) than their season average (1.82)
- Tactical metric: Orlando City averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
风险
- Away weakness: Orlando City concede an average of 3.36 goals per away match
- Goal scoring drop: Toronto's goal output dropped to 1.0 recently compared to their season average of 1.46
全部概率
赛果
Toronto34%
平局26%
Orlando City40%
进球
大于 1.585%
小于 1.515%
大于 2.562%
小于 2.538%
大于 3.540%
小于 3.560%
双重机会
Toronto或平局60%
Orlando City或平局66%
非平局74%
双方均进球
是65%
否35%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
3:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Toronto 4-4-2 · Orlando City 4-4-2
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 20 D. Salloi
- 9 J. Sargent
- 90 L. Morgan
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 10 M. Ojeda
替补
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 19 K. Franklin
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 38 J. Gilman
- 27 A. Piedrahita Díaz
- 96 R. Chukwu
- 9 D. Dike
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 21 N. Miller
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 11 T. Souza de Lima
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
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