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Major League Soccer

Toronto - Cincinnati

04/11/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Toronto
1.6
Total xG
3.0
Cincinnati
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
TORCIN

Toronto

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.67倍)
-0.78
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.39
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.03
Djordje Mihailovic替补席 (1球, 2助攻)

Cincinnati

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.39倍)
+0.62
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.38
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.03
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.1球)
+0.63
+0.63
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

41%

平局

27%

客胜

32%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

双重机会

主胜或平局

68%

客胜或平局

59%

非平局

73%

双方进球

61%

39%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a higher home win probability for Toronto at 41% compared to 32% for Cincinnati
  • Toronto is in significantly better form with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, while Cincinnati has only one win
  • Cincinnati's away defense is extremely vulnerable, conceding an average of 5.5 goals per game
风险因素
  • Despite Cincinnati's poor results, the advanced stats analysis shows a stable offensive form averaging 1.4 goals per game
  • The pipeline analysis indicates a high probability of both teams scoring at 61%
  • Toronto is missing key players such as R. Edwards (Red Card Suspension) and D. Mihailovic (Pelvis Injury)
概述

Toronto (6th place, 10 points) host Cincinnati (10th place, 6 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on April 11, 2026, 5:00 PM

Toronto aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Cincinnati seeks to escape the lower ranks

近期状态

Toronto shows a current form of LWDWW

They recorded 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games

Their last two appearances ended in a win

Cincinnati has a form of LLLWL

They achieved 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 games

Their last match ended in a loss

统计数据

Toronto scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes 1.67 goals per game this season

At home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1 goal conceded

They kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 4 out of 6 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored 4 times

Cincinnati also scores an average of 1.5 goals per game but concedes 2.5 goals per game this season

Away, they average 1.5 goals scored and an alarming 5.5 goals conceded

They kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 3 out of 6 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored 3 times

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3 times, Toronto 1 time, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 4:7 in favor of Cincinnati

The last encounter on March 8, 2026, was won by Toronto away with a score of 1:0

Cincinnati has proven to be the more dominant team in recent encounters

关键球员

For Toronto, Dániel Sallói (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.94 rating) and Josh Sargent (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg. 6.90 rating) are in stable form

Alonso Coello (1 assist, Avg. 7.13 rating) shows a rising form

For Cincinnati, Kévin Denkey (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.07 rating) and Ender Echenique (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg. 7.08 rating) are in stable form

Evander (1 assist, Avg. 7.00 rating) is also in stable form

门将

Luka Gavran (6 appearances) is in goal for Toronto

The team recorded 1 clean sheet

Roman Celentano (4 appearances) is in goal for Cincinnati

The team recorded 1 clean sheet

影响因素

Toronto has scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1 goal in home games, indicating a certain home advantage

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