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Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - Real Salt Lake

07/26/2026, 02:30 AM

2 : 1
预期进球
Portland Timbers
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Real Salt Lake
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
PTRSL

Portland Timbers

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-0.80
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.35
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第5位, 相差7位)
-0.10
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.06
Kristoffer Velde替补席 (4球, 2助攻)

Real Salt Lake

防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.09
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.06
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第12位, 相差7位)
+0.05
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.00
11%进球产出缺失 (仅77%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.8球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.78
+0.78
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

34%

平局

28%

客胜

38%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

62%

客胜或平局

66%

非平局

72%

双方进球

58%

42%

关键因素
  • Portland averaged 2.0 goals per game recently, higher than their season average of 1.81, while Real Salt Lake's attack has stalled, averaging 1.6 goals recently
  • Real Salt Lake suffers from heavy defensive issues on the road, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per away match
  • The mathematical model expects a close encounter, giving Real Salt Lake a 38% win probability and Portland 34%
风险因素
  • Both teams face potential fatigue, having only 3 days of rest since their last official match
  • Portland is missing Kristoffer Velde, meaning key attacking contributions of 4 goals and 2 assists are unavailable
  • Declining form of Real Salt Lake goalkeeper Rafael Cabral with a form trend delta of -0.22
概述

Portland Timbers (12th place, 18 points) host Real Salt Lake (5th place, 26 points)

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 4:30 AM

The game will take place at Providence Park

近期状态

Portland's recent form across all competitions is DLLWD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Real Salt Lake enters with a form of LWWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Portland drew their last match 2-2 against Dallas

Real Salt Lake lost their latest game 1-3 to Los Angeles FC

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Portland scores an average of 1.81 goals and concedes 1.94 per game

Real Salt Lake averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

Real Salt Lake struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per away match

Portland is more compact at home, conceding 1.44 goals on average

历史交锋

5 head-to-head matches in total

Real Salt Lake has won 2 times, Portland 1 time, with 2 draws

The last matchup on May 2, 2026, ended in a 0-2 victory for Real Salt Lake

关键球员

Kevin Kelsy leads Portland with 8 goals and 2 assists this season

David Da Costa has contributed 5 assists in 13 midfield appearances for Portland

Zavier Gozo is Real Salt Lake's top performer with 6 goals and 4 assists

Not nominated: Kristoffer Velde (4T/2A)

门将

James Pantemis has played 16 games for Portland with an average rating of 7.15

Rafael Cabral has made 15 appearances for Real Salt Lake, recording 2 clean sheets

影响因素

The match is held at Providence Park on artificial turf

Portland has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf this season

Real Salt Lake has played twice on artificial turf, securing 1 win and 1 loss

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